infolinks

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Six reasons why I’m convinced that the U.S. economy is even now falling into a rare double-dip recession ...




1.# The economy is quickly running out of gas: The recovery that followed the bear market was bought and paid for with $2 trillion in government stimulus and bailout money. Now, that money is running out. The economy and stock market are running on fumes. And with no new stimulus on the horizon, there’s nothing left to keep stocks from plunging.
2.# Jobs, jobs, JOBS: Despite everything Washington has tried to do, nearly one in four American workers is still struggling to get by with a reduced paycheck — or without any income at all! Worse: The job growth of recent months has now dwindled to nearly nothing. The economy created a lousy 41,000 private sector jobs in May, nowhere near what we need to bring unemployment down. Next up: Massive, fresh job LOSSES!
3.# 70% of the economy is shutting down: Consumers are responsible for 70% of all economic activity — and consumer confidence is cratering. Worse: Retail sales are already plunging.
4.# The housing slump has returned with a vengeance: New home sales just cratered by 33%, the biggest decline on record. Foreclosures are increasing again, creating new nightmares for our largest banks.
5.# Most U.S. states are drowning in debt; New York, California and others are going down for the third time: The 50 U.S. states now have a cumulative deficit of $127.5 billion. Plus, states have more than $1 trillion in pension obligations they can’t pay. They have to make massive spending cuts to survive — cuts that are sure to lead to even more job losses, and impact corporate earnings and stock prices from coast to coast.
6.# Sovereign debt crisis is leaving investors gun-shy: More and more investors are viewing Europe’s sovereign debt crisis as a sneak preview of our own future here in the United States. After all — our debts are far greater than Portugal’s, Greece’s or any of the other “PIIGS” countries! If they’re right, we could see interest rates soar — pure poison for an economy as strapped as ours is.

No comments: