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Showing posts with label bear. Show all posts
Showing posts with label bear. Show all posts

Saturday, February 21, 2015

Correction at BursaMalaysia imminent?


With S & P 500 closing at 2,110.30 ; Dow at 18,140.44 and Nasdaq at 4,955.97 which are all near record highs many stock gurus out there are looking into their crystal balls hoping to see when the major correction is going to happen. Some say it is imminent but few say that S&P 500 still has a leg to go higher.
I am not certain who is correct but I am very certain that eventually a correction has to come.
This current super bull started sometime around March 2009. The current bull is already 6 years old and if history is to repeat itself very soon a new bear will be borne to rule supreme at least for a year or two.

As for FBMKLCI the current bull started at around 800 points and reached a high of around 1895 somewhere around July 2014. It has corrected to around 1674 in December 2014. The big question is whether this correction is good enough or more bad days a ahead. No one knows.

A good strategy maybe is to sell into strength (if any) and hold more cash so that in the event the bear comes we can do some cherry picking.


Saturday, November 22, 2014

Over reaction in a bearish cycle?


In Malaysia FBMKLCI on 21st November 2014  is currently at 1809.13 which is below the 200 DMA (200-day moving average). This indicates a bear market or what we call a downtrend. Normally, the bear trend has to run its course and eventually a bottom will be formed and a change of trend will take hold. No one is able to predict with certainty the bottom of the downtrend and so no one is able to sell all his stock portfolio to ride out the bear. Very often opportunities will surface even in a bear market because not all stocks peak or ebb at the same time. Valuation is the key while we cannot ignore momentum of the individual stocks that create trading opportunities.

As on 21st November 2014, the wholesale dumping of oil stocks is out of control. Solid companies have dropped 30% to 50% in 6 weeks.
But there's no need to panic. As Warren Buffett says: "You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy. It's that simple."
As surely as night follows day, energy stocks will rebound quickly from this massive sell-off. Join us as we seize the moment and snap up bargain buys BEFORE the market comes to its senses. Profit upsides range from 30% to 74%.

If there is an over reaction due to weak crude oil price it may have created the opportunity to eye on the fundamentally strong stocks for accumulation so that when things turn normal we may stand to gain.