infolinks

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Warren Buffett's 9 rules for running a business

Warren Buffett is legendary as an investor, but he's also an incredibly successful businessperson, too—a fact that sometimes gets lost in the millions of words that have been written about his advice on how to buy a stock.
That advice can be summarized with a just a few words. Appearing on the CNBC-produced syndicated program "On the Money" last month,Buffett said, "If you own your stocks as an investment—just like you'd own an apartment, house or a farm—look at them as a business."
Using that viewpoint, you shouldn't buy a stock simply because you think it will go up in price sometime soon. Instead, you should buy a piece of a business that you think will generate profits for a long time to come.
That long-term perspective is also at the core of the business advice that Buffett has provided over the years.
Here are some examples from his annual letters to Berkshire Hathawayshareholders.
1. Keep calm in the face of volatility. Buffett writes that earnings gyrations "don't bother us in the least." After all, "Charlie and I would much rather earn a lumpy 15 percent over time than a smooth 12 percent."
2. Keep good company. Berkshire has never split its Class A shares. As a result, one share currently costs almost $214,000. That discouraged people from rapidly moving into and out of the stock, and that's exactly the way Buffett likes it. He wants shareholders who share his long-term view. All the way back in 1979, he wrote, "In large part, companies obtain the shareholder constituency that they seek and deserve. If they focus their thinking and communications on short-term results or short-term stock market consequences, they will, in large part, attract shareholders who focus on the same factors."
3. Keep your focus. In that same letter, Buffett warns that even a great company can see its "value stagnate in the presence of hubris or of boredom that caused the attention of managers to wander." The result: a "sidetracked" leadership that "neglects its wonderful base business while purchasing other businesses that are so-so or worse." In this area, Buffett argues that "inactivity strikes us as intelligent behavior." In 1982, a year that saw a number of corporate deals, Buffett thought that in many of them, "managerial intellect wilted in competition with managerial adrenaline. The thrill of the chase blinded the pursuers to the consequences of the catch."
4. Keep costs low. In his 1996 letter, Buffett wrote that being a "low-cost operator" is directly responsible for the success of Berkshire's GEICO auto insurance subsidiary. "Low costs permit low prices, and low prices attract and retain good policyholders." And when those customers recommend GEICO to their friends, the company gets an "enormous savings in acquisition expenses, and that makes our costs still lower."
5. Keep employee incentives simple. Buffett doesn't like what he calls "lottery ticket" arrangements, such as stock options, in which the ultimate value could range from "zero to huge" and is "totally out of the control of the person whose behavior we would like to affect." Instead, goals should be "tailored to the economics" of the business, simple and measurable, and "directly related to the daily activities of plan participants."
6. Keep out of trouble. Buffett tries to "reverse engineer" the future at Berkshire. "If we can't tolerate a possible consequence, remote though it may be, we steer clear of planting its seeds." (Buffett notes that his partner Charlie Munger often says, "All I want to know is where I'm going to die so I'll never go there.")
7. Keep your undervalued stock to yourself. Buffett is especially critical of a company using its stock to make a purchase when that stock isn't being fully valued by the market. "Under such circumstances, a marvelous business purchased at a fair sales price becomes a terrible buy. For gold valued as gold cannot be purchased intelligently through the utilitization of gold—or even silver—valued as lead."
8. Keep it small. In 2006, Buffett wrote that he's skeptical "about the ability of big entities of any type to function well." In his opinion, "size seems to make many organizations slow-thinking, resistant to change and smug." That's one reason Berkshire's corporate headquarters still has only a handful of employees, with almost all the managing work left to its unit's managers. "It is a real pleasure to work with managers who enjoy coming to work each morning and, once there, instinctively and unerringly think like owners."
9. Keep your reputation. In Buffett's mind, perhaps the most important piece of advice for businesses, and for everyone else, is to maintain a sterling reputation for honesty by never doing something you wouldn't want to see reported on the front page of your local newspaper. After taking control of Salomon in the wake of a major 1991 scandal at the financial firm, he famously told a Congressional panel that he had a simple message for employees: "Lose money for the firm and I will be understanding; lose a shred of reputation for the firm and I will be ruthless."
As he put it in one of his most-often quoted sayings: "It takes 20 years to build a reputation and five minutes to ruin it. If you think about that, you'll do things differently."

Thursday, December 25, 2014

Wisdom of Warren Buffett to be shared especially with regards to 2015

Warren Buffett is such an investing powerhouse, it’s hard to list his credentials without making him sound like Dos Equis’ Most Interesting Man in the World:
The Oracle of Omaha is one of the most influential businessmen in the world — and, arguably, the most frugal, a billionaire that once complained “most toys are just a pain in the neck.”
As often as he’s on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” talking about holding company Berkshire Hathaway’s per-share book value, he’s urging students to stay out of credit card debt and increase their savings.
With the year winding down, we combed through all the advice Buffett has given us in 2014, from the sublime (“Price is what you pay, value is what you get”) to the ridiculous (“A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends”).
The net result? Six things you should be doing with your money in 2015, from the master’s mouth.

Warren Buffett’s Best Advice for 2015

1. Put Your Estate in Index Funds

In his 2014 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Buffett revealed his estate plan, reminding readers to keep their investments safe, low-cost and long-term.
Turns out, he’s planning on leaving all of the cash for his wife in a product that’s as old, stodgy and lucrative as himself.
“My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors — whether pension funds, institutions or individuals — who employ high-fee managers.”

2. Stay Away From Bitcoin

Given Buffett’s almost wholesale aversion to tech, this one isn’t a surprise; the Oracle refuses to invest in what he doesn’t know, and he doesn’t know the technology sector, IBM notwithstanding.
But Buffett’s problem with Bitcoin isn’t that it’s a tech investment — it’s that it’s not any kind of investment at all, because it doesn’t have value, as he explained in a March interview with CNBC.
“Stay away from it. It’s a mirage, basically. … It’s a method of transmitting money. It’s a very effective way of transmitting money and you can do it anonymously and all that. A check is a way of transmitting money, too. Are checks worth a whole lot of money just because they can transmit money? Are money orders? You can transmit money by money orders. People do it. I hope Bitcoin becomes a better way of doing it, but you can replicate it a bunch of different ways and it will be. The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view.”

3. Learn How to Read Financial Statements

Buffett gave this advice to Tre Grinner, a 17-year-old with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma who recently secured a Goldman Sachs internship with the help of the Make-a-Wish Foundation.
Buffett surprised the intern with a call while he was being interviewed by CNBC in August, offering him this advice:
“Take all the accounting courses that you can find. Accounting is the language of business. … It’ll make it so much easier for years and years to come for reading financial statements, to get comfortable with it, because it is a language all of its own. Getting comfortable in a foreign language takes a little experience, a little study early on, but it pays off big later on.”

4. Focus on Saving, Not Getting Rich Quick

Ironically, Buffett dropped this tip when promoting his basically unwinnable billion dollar bracket challenge on the Dan Patrick Show.
The sweepstakes, backed by Buffett and Quicken Loans, would award $1 billion to anyone who devised a perfect NCAA March Madness bracket. (The odds of winning were about 1 in 9.2 quintillion — you were 53 billion times more likely to win the Powerball.) Still, the Oracle’s advice was solid:
“Well, I think the biggest mistake is not learning the habits of saving properly early. Because saving is a habit. And then, trying to get rich quick. It’s pretty easy to get well-to-do slowly. But it’s not easy to get rich quick.”

5. When Stock Prices Drop, Buy — Don’t Sell

It was a volatile year for the market and Buffett’s wealth; the investor lost about $2 billion in the course of several days in October when Coke and IBM took a hit after their quarterly earnings reports. Buffett kept calm, though, giving several interviews in which he explained why he was a fan of bear markets.
Granted, when you’ve got $63 billion to your name, this kind of a hit is lunch money. But, as the Oracle explained to CNBC, investors with itchy trigger fingers rarely succeed.
“I like buying it as it goes down, and the more it goes down, the more I like to buy. … If you told me that the market was going to go down 500 points next week, I would have bought those same businesses and stocks yesterday. I don’t know how to tell what the market’s going to do. I do know how to pick out reasonable businesses to own over a long period of time.”

6. Stop Pretending to Be an Expert

“If you don’t invest in things you know, you’re just gambling,” Buffett told CNBC earlier this year. It’s advice he’s rarely strayed from, and the reason why tech, gold and airlines will never get his money (or, in the case of airlines, get his money again). As he wrote in his 2014 shareholders letter:
“You don’t need to be an expert in order to achieve satisfactory investment returns. But if you aren’t, you must recognize your limitations and follow a course certain to work reasonably well. Keep things simple and don’t swing for the fences. When promised quick profits, respond with a quick ‘no.'


Read more: http://www.gobankingrates.com/personal-finance/6-things-warren-buffett-says-should-money-2015/#ixzz3MvFvkgL8

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Lesson on Carry Trade by Mike Larson



“Carry Trades” are dominating market action. Not just here. Not just in stocks. In virtually every asset class around the world.
But now, some troubling tremors are starting to emerge – and that could change the game!
So let’s address your first question right up front: What the heck is a carry trade?
Think of it like banking. A bank’s goal is to raise money cheaply from depositors like us, then take that money and loan it out at a higher yield to someone else. Paying out 1 percent on a CD, and loaning it out at 5 percent to a small business is basically a way for the bank to earn “positive carry” of 4 percent.

Things are more complicated in the global markets. It’s not just banks with a seat at the table, and it’s not just CDs or business loans. It’s investors of all sizes – all trying to borrow cheap money from a wide variety of sources, and investing that money in a wide variety of higher-yielding assets.
The strategies involved can be incredibly complex. But lately, some of the biggest carry trades have been those taking advantage of cheap yen and cheap euros. That’s because the Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have been doling out free money like Halloween candy.
So as part of this common carry trade, global investors will …
    1. Borrow cheap yen and euros (and to a lesser extent, borrow in many other currencies) …
    2. Sell those currencies and convert their funds into dollars …
    3. Then buy dollar-based assets that yield more, largely because the U.S. Federal Reserve has been talking tougher than its overseas counterparts.
That process has helped drive U.S. stock prices higher and higher in recent weeks. There has also been a negative side effect on commodities. Commodities often trade as “contra-dollar assets” – meaning they fall in value when the dollar rises. With the dollar surging, it’s been a bloodbath in gold, silver, copper, crude oil and other resources markets.
So what’s the problem? Can’t we all just sit back, buy U.S. stocks, short the yen and euro, dump energy and gold, and retire as millionaires?
Maybe for a while. But eventually, the rubber band gets stretched too far. Everyone and his sister will put the same trades on, and you get to the point where assets are ridiculously mispriced. When that happens, even the smallest bit of contrary news can lead to furious counter-trend rallies.
“The Bank of Japan and European Central Bank have been doling out free money like Halloween candy.”
I’ve seen it happen before many times in my career, and my antennae have been up recently, especially in the currency markets. As much as I think Japan and Europe have major problems, and the U.S. is in better economic shape, the yen and euro have gotten wildly oversold and the dollar has gotten severely overbought.
That means you have the preconditions for a sharp adjustment in place. Then overnight, China’s Shanghai Composite Index reversed sharply and dumped more than 5 percent on record-high trading volume of $128 billion. That was the worst one-day market rout in a half decade for a market that had been rising and rising despite weak, underlying economic fundamentals.
Other frontier and far-flung emerging markets sold off in sympathy, and the Japanese yen launched a sharp rally. As a matter of fact, the yen earlier staged the biggest rally since the spring. Gold and silver have also been seeing a “stealth” rally, and so have agricultural commodities.
Maybe this is a short-term thing. Maybe it’s just a small correction, and nothing more. But it’s worth watching whether this turns into something bigger. Because carry trades are great … until the moves get so large that the markets can’t carry their own weight anymore!
So let me know your thoughts. Have you heard of carry trades before, and does the potential reversal of those trades worry you? What do you think about the yen, the euro, and the dollar? Have we gone too far too fast, leaving us open to a big correction? Or do you think those moves have further to go? Finally, do stock market sectors like energy and gold look attractive to you after the beating they’ve taken in the past several months

Saturday, December 6, 2014

ROUBINI: This Mother Of All Asset Bubbles Will Burst In 2016

In February 2013, NYU professor Nouriel Roubini made the call that US markets had entered the “mother of all asset bubbles.”
nouriel roubini
Nouriel Roubini
With the rally in stocks that we’ve seen this year and a surge in high-yield debt issuance, Roubini said we’re now at the midpoint of the bubble, in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
Next year may see more gains across markets, but the bubble, bigger than the one before the 2008 recession, will pop in 2016. 
Because there is low growth, and low inflation in much of the world, there is liquidity that’s leading to asset inflation, Roubini said:
I think that this frothiness that we have seen in financial markets is likely to continue, from equities to credit to housing, and in a couple of years, most likely, this asset inflation is going to become asset frothiness and eventually an asset and a credit bubble and eventually any bubble ends up in a bust and a crash. I would say that valuations in many markets, whether it’s government bonds or credit, or real estate, or some equity markets, are already stretched. And they’re going to become more stretched as the real economy justifies the slow exit, and all this liquidity is going to go into more asset inflation. So two years down the line, we could have this shakeout … 2016 I would say.
His advice for investors is to be underweight US equities next year as stock valuations increase, particularly in the biotech, technology and social media sectors. Emerging markets that are heavy oil importers and will benefit from lower oil prices are attractive.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Over reaction in a bearish cycle?


In Malaysia FBMKLCI on 21st November 2014  is currently at 1809.13 which is below the 200 DMA (200-day moving average). This indicates a bear market or what we call a downtrend. Normally, the bear trend has to run its course and eventually a bottom will be formed and a change of trend will take hold. No one is able to predict with certainty the bottom of the downtrend and so no one is able to sell all his stock portfolio to ride out the bear. Very often opportunities will surface even in a bear market because not all stocks peak or ebb at the same time. Valuation is the key while we cannot ignore momentum of the individual stocks that create trading opportunities.

As on 21st November 2014, the wholesale dumping of oil stocks is out of control. Solid companies have dropped 30% to 50% in 6 weeks.
But there's no need to panic. As Warren Buffett says: "You want to be greedy when others are fearful. You want to be fearful when others are greedy. It's that simple."
As surely as night follows day, energy stocks will rebound quickly from this massive sell-off. Join us as we seize the moment and snap up bargain buys BEFORE the market comes to its senses. Profit upsides range from 30% to 74%.

If there is an over reaction due to weak crude oil price it may have created the opportunity to eye on the fundamentally strong stocks for accumulation so that when things turn normal we may stand to gain.




Sunday, November 2, 2014

IOI Properties Group Bhd

http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/ioi-properties-maybe-key-beneficiary-mrt

IOI Properties Group Bhd
(Oct 31, RM2.75)
Maintain “buy” with target price (TP) of RM3.38:
 IOI Properties Group (IOI Properties) remains our top pick for big-cap property stocks. Since the proposed stops for the mass rapid transit (MRT) Line 2 are still not firmed up — given that the railway will end at Putrajaya — IOI Properties has emerged as a potential key beneficiary of the project.
It has more than 500 acres (202.34ha) of land bank there, and the IOI City Mall will likely be a valuable asset.
With this MRT line, the gross development value (GDV) for its land bank in Putrajaya will likely rise further.
We believe the market may have overlooked the potential value of IOI Properties’ land bank and property assets.
With the latest green light from the government to go ahead with the MRT Line 2 project, IOI Properties emerges a potential key beneficiary.
According to the information provided by Gamuda Bhd ( Financial Dashboard), Line 2 will run from the Sungai Buloh depot to Putrajaya, and the proposed stops include Kepong, Sentul, KLCC, Cheras Sentral, Serdang,Universiti Tenaga Nasional (Uniten) and Precinct 14, Putrajaya.
IOI Properties owns over 500 acres of land in Putrajaya, called IOI Resort City.
Currently, the existing property assets there include 1 & 2 IOI SquarePutrajaya Marriott Hotel and Palm Garden Hotel. Another IOI Resort hotel is currently under construction.
The IOI City Mall, with a net lettable area (NLA) of 1.4 million sq ft, will have its soft opening in November. About 90% of the retail space has already been leased out and key anchor tenants include Parkson, Tesco Premium, HomePro and Index Living by Aeon.
Our checks reveal that phase 2 of the mall — which will be constructed at a later stage — will have a NLA of 900,000 sq ft.
As phase 2 will be in close proximity to Uniten, the proposed Uniten MRT station could potentially be located there. If this materialises, the IOI City Mall will likely see long-term value appreciation, which would spur IOI Properties’ revised net asset value (RNAV) rerating.
Note that IOI Properties currently already has strategic land bank in Puchong fronting the four light rapid transit (LRT) stations currently under construction.
IOI Properties’ second condominium project in Putrajaya, after Puteri Palm in 2011, has achieved a 70% take-up since its launch in August.
The Clio Residences has an estimated GDV of RM180 million, at an average selling price of RM650 per sq ft.
We expect the future GDV, currently at RM3.1 billion, of the remaining Putrajaya land to expand, given the boost from this latest infrastructure development.
We maintain our “buy” rating and RM3.38 TP at a 30% discount to RNAV. — RHB Research Institute, Oct 31
IOI-Properties_theedgemarkets

Monday, October 20, 2014

Mark Mobius: Pick stocks on dividend yield


Mark Mobius, Chairman of  Franklin Templeton has some insight into investing in Bursamalaysia. I am pasting his comments below for my reference and freely share others:-

"Investing in stocks that pay good dividends is the best strategy for investors in the short term as the FBM KLCI is overvalued in price-earnings ratio (PER) terms compared with other Asian indices, said Templeton Emerging Markets group executive chairman Dr Mark Mobius.
Yesterday, the KLCI closed at 1,803.14 points, with a PER of 16.38 times. On the other hand, Singapore’s Straits Times Index ended the day with a PER of 13.27 times while the Hang Seng Index closed with a PER of 10.05 times.
“It’s not a good idea to make short-term decisions in the market. Look at individual stocks in Malaysia to determine what the growth rates are going to be and what the valuations are now. At this stage, there are a number of stocks that you can buy, but I wouldn’t rush in.
“You have to look for cheaper stocks, those that have good growth but a relatively low PER and [good] yields. At this stage there are a number of very attractive high-yielding stocks, where the yields range from 5% to 7%,” Mobius told reporters after a luncheon talk yesterday.
He said stocks such as British American Tobacco (M) Bhd ( Financial Dashboard), Guinness Anchor Bhd (Financial Dashboard), Carlsberg Brewery (M) Bhd ( Financial Dashboard) and banking stocks are of particular interest, as those traditionally reward shareholders well.
“I’m very interested in banks, in particular. Because they reflect the growth of the country they are in. They [are] more diversified and less volatile as a result, and you get a nice dividend yield,” Mobius said.
He is also interested in the pharmaceutical and medical care industries as they are “high-growth industries”, while he considers the property sector in  Malaysia as one of the best markets for foreign investment.
“Property companies here look quite interesting, particularly those that are in a diversified portfolio,” Mobius said.
In his presentation earlier, Mobius said while property prices in Malaysia are rising, the number of non-performing loans and mortgages is declining, demonstrating the buying ability of Malaysians compared with other countries in the region.
“Thailand, Indonesia and [the] Philippines have a higher rate of non-performing loans. So from that point of view, it’s (Malaysian property) clearly affordable and if you look at house prices in relation to income, Malaysia is right there at the bottom,” he said.
On Malaysia as an investment destination, Mobius said tax rates for investors and predictability are the determining factors for foreign direct investments (FDIs).
“One of the things that hurt Malaysia a lot during the Asian financial crisis was when it stopped money going out. That created a lot of angst among foreign investors. It is very important to create a sense of confidence that there will be some predictability in the rule of law,” he said.
However, Mobius said factors like the undervalued ringgit, high-yielding stocks, the government’s programme to open up the market and efforts to integrate with other Asean markets also contribute to attracting FDIs.
On how the KLCI would end the year, he said the index should close higher — barring major crises — but did not specify a target.
“The trend is definitely moving upwards despite the valuations because there is room to accommodate high PER since the interest rates are so low,” he added."

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on October 21, 2014.

Thursday, October 16, 2014

Six reasons why stock markets are tumbling

What has caused share prices to fall 10 per cent in a month?

More than £46 billion was wiped off the stock market on Wednesday as fears over the health of the global economy caused the biggest dip in share prices for almost a year and a half.
In a blow to savers, the FTSE 100 fell 181 points, 2.8 per cent, to just 6212 - its lowest since the summer of 2013. Financial markets around the world experienced a similar plight. The market recovered slightly on Thursday morning, but is still almost 10 per cent down on its 6880 peak in early September.
Here, in no particular order, are some of the reasons...

1 Greece

There are fears over the stability of the Greek government and its bail-out plans. David Madden, an analyst at IG, said: "It looks like we are entering another phase of the eurozone debt crisis." Greek share prices on Wednesday fell to their lowest level in 2014 as the country headed for an early election. A radical left opposition to the Greek government appears to be gaining momentum, opinion polls suggest.

2 America

The world's biggest economy looks weaker than it did a few months ago. Poor retail figures and a slowdown in manufacturing have put it on the back foot. US retail sales declined 0.3 per cent in September, marking the first fall in seven months.
The Federal Reserve, America's central bank, may now have to wait longer to raise interest rates. The outlook for America, China and Germany tends to set the pace for global share prices, which have become closely aligned due to globalisation.

3 Ebola

Crises make investors nervous. And nervousness leads to selling shares. Ebola has killed about 4,500 people so far, mostly in Liberia, Guinea and Sierra Leone. This week, it was revealed that a second American nurse has contracted the virus. The disease is spreading, experts said. Anthony Banbury of the UN said: "It is running faster than us, and it is winning the race."

4 Europe

The eurozone could feasibly slip back into recession, analysts have said. And it's not just Greece where there are concerns. Germany, the eurozone's biggest economy, has reported a fall in exports and slashed growth forecasts. Prospects across the Continent had "gone from bad to worse", according to City analysts Capital Economics, which downgraded its growth prediction for the year from 1 per cent to 0.7 per cent.

5 General nervousness

Jitters, they call it. Panic "gripped the market", according to one commentator in the Financial Times. Worries are often caused by global threats to health and security. One example is Ebola, but there are many around at the moment – for example, the geopolitical tensions in Syria, Iraq, Hong Kong and Ukraine. As these situations remain unresolved, traders anticipate difficulties for global companies that rely on exports and imports, as trade is disrupted. Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank said: “We’ve had a steady increase in bad news over the last month and it’s got to a point now where the market is nervous enough that incremental bad news is the straw that breaks the camel’s back.”

6 Deflation threat

Deflation is bad news, generally speaking, for economic growth and so investors are watching with apprehension. Inflation figures have fallen in many parts of the world. In the UK for instance, consumer prices index (CPI) inflation is now just 1.2 per cent – a five-year low.
What is meant by deflation? Essentially, it means that the buyers of goods and services don't trust the price in the shop window; they expect it to be lower next week. For example, someone might put off buying a car for £10,000 thinking that next week it will be £9,900. When the next week arrives, the person delays the purchase again, thinking the price will fall to £9,800 in a few days. And so on.
Ben Yearsley of stockbrokers Charles Stanley said: "The global economy does appear to be under threat, particularly from deflation in Europe, where prices have started to fall, and this could be contagious for the UK."

Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Warren Buffett Tells You How to Handle a Market Crash

Are you starting to panic? Heed the advice of the Oracle of Omaha.

Warren Buffett has never been shy about packing lessons for successful investing into his annual letter to shareholders. That letter is a treasure-trove of insight, presented in a folksy manner that is not only easy to read but incredibly entertaining.
With the market tumbling we’re all likely in need of a few doses of Warren’s unpretentious advice, so I dug through his past shareholder letters to find some gems that may help us navigate the current market drop and build a bigger nest egg for retirement.

1. “It’s better to have a partial interest in the Hope diamond than to own all of a rhinestone,” wrote Buffett in 2013.

Buffett is always hunting for great companies that he can buy for Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, but if he can’t buy the whole company, he’s OK with owning a smaller piece of it instead. Applying this advice to our own investments means spending less time considering how many shares of a company we can buy and more time figuring out where we believe the company will be in ten years. Doing that will help us avoid the pitfall of foregoing investments in great companies like Amazon AMZN 0.4536% ) or Priceline PCLN 0.6803% when they’re on sale to buy lower quality companies with smaller share prices.

2. “A ‘normal year,’ of course, is not something that either Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire and my partner, or I can define with anything like precision,” wrote Buffet in 2010.


Sure, the average annual return for the S&P 500 has been 8.14% over the past decade, but assuming that will be our return this year, next year, or any year is folly. Returns are volatile and will continue to be volatile, so we should focus less on the returns for any one period of time and instead focus on buying great companies and socking them away. Consider this point: While the S&P 500 has experienced plenty of fits-and-starts over the past 10 years, those who have owned it all along are up 103%.

3. “Long ago, Charlie laid out his strongest ambition: ‘All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there,'” wrote Buffett in 2009.


Buffett avoids businesses whose future he can’t evaluate. Instead, he focuses on finding businesses that offer a predictable profit for decades to come. Taking the long-haul approach to finding great companies goes far beyond identifying the next big thing — after all, during the Internet boom there were plenty of Internet companies that soared on expectations rather than profit, and many of those companies have since gone bankrupt. Instead, we should be investing in companies we can understand that are likely to remain winners.

4. “We will never become dependent on the kindness of strangers. Too-big-to-fail is not a fallback,” wrote Buffett in 2009.


Warren’s cash stockpile is a thing of legend, and while that cash hoard holds back his returns in periods of growth, it also protects him when markets turn sour. Importantly, it also gives him the financial flexibility to take action and buy when prices are right. That plan-ahead mentality is something every investor can embrace by making sure there’s always some dry-powder around to deploy during the market’s inevitable declines.

5. “We would rather suffer the visible costs of a few bad decisions than incur the many invisible costs that come from decisions made too slowly — or not at all — because of a stifling bureaucracy,” wrote Buffett in 2009.

Buffett doesn’t hesitant when he’s presented with an idea that hits the mark. He recognizes that he won’t be right every time, but he also believes that taking action is critical to realizing the potential of an opportunity. As investors, we can emulate Buffett’s approach by making sure that once we’ve done our due diligence and picked our favorite investments we take action and buy, regardless of the market’s short-term machinations.

6. “Unlike many business buyers, Berkshire has no ‘exit strategy.’ We buy to keep. We do, though, have an entrance strategy, looking for businesses in this country or abroad…available at a price that will produce a reasonable return. If you have a business that fits, give me a call. Like a hopeful teenage girl, I’ll be waiting by the phone,” wrote Buffett in 2005.

Buffett keeps strictly to his investment discipline, but he also keeps an open mind to great ideas that fit into his strategy. Those ideas can come from various places. His acquisition of Clayton Homes, for example, was sparked by an autobiography of Clayton’s founder Jim Clayton which had been given to him as a gift by some University of Tennessee students. Keeping open to opportunities, regardless of their origin, may help us find worthwhile investments for the long term, too.

7. “Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful,” wrote Buffett in 2004.

Buffett knows that emotion is a dangerous weapon that, if used incorrectly, can result in significant loss — and, if used correctly, can result in significant gain. Emotional reactions to surging or descending markets can make people buy when they should sell and sell when they should buy. Buffett often compares taking advantage of market slides to shopping for groceries. Last week on CNBC he summed it up by saying, “If you’re buying groceries, you like it when prices go down next week. And you like it if they go down further the next week.” Just as we like getting a good deal on the items at the grocery store we would be buying anyway, we should also be fans of getting a good deal on our favorite companies.

Following in Buffett’s footsteps

Buffett has no idea whether he’ll outperform the S&P 500 over the next year, but he does know that Berkshire Hathaway’s book value has grown a compounded annual 19.7% over the past 49 years. Similarly, we don’t know if our investments will outperform the market daily, weekly, or yearly, either. What we can feel pretty good about is the knowledge that investing in great companies like Coca Cola KO -1.0438% and Wells Fargo WFC -3.2271% — two companies that are long-standing Buffett holdings — may help put us on a path to a less-worrisome retirement.

Goldman Sachs has three rules for investing success in this volatile market

How bad was last week for the markets? The extreme volatility, which ended with the  S&P and Nasdaq recording their worst weekly declines in two years, was bad enough that even Goldman Sachs Group said its investors were dazed and confused in a note Monday. One investor even said it felt like he had whiplash.
Here are four factors driving the market’s moves right now.

1. Global growth clouds: The U.S. is expanding above trend, but China is slowing, and Europe is barely growing.
2. Dollar strength: The euro is expected to achieve parity by 2017.
3. The bear market for crude: The price of crude has fallen more than 20% since June.
4. Small caps notch dismal returns: The Russell 2000 RUT is down 13% off its peak and is underperforming the S&P 500 SPX .
Funds are also lagging the market, with 85% of large-cap mutual funds reporting that they’re below their benchmarks year-to-date, and your average hedge fund was up about 1% versus 5% for the S&P 500.
But Goldman GS  has a plan for how to invest in this uncertain market.
Focus on ‘American economic exceptionalism.‘ In layman’s terms, this means forecasts for stronger U.S. growth (Goldman economists expect 3.2% in 2015, which would be the fastest rate of expansion since 2005) will benefit companies with  greater domestic sales than foreign sales.
Invest in sectors that benefit from lower oil prices: Without a rebound in oil prices, energy equities will continue to lag. But lower oil will aid companies that provide consumer staples and discretionary products as input costs fall and personal consumption begins to rise. Chemical companies and airlines also will see reduced costs. Overweight industrials and consumer discretionary, advises Goldman. See: Split between OPEC producers deepens
Stick with U.S. large caps: A rising dollar and positive U.S. growth typically correspond with the Russell 2000′s outperformance, but negative earnings have driven small-caps lower. This may be due to the fact that investors are biased toward the relative safety of large-caps. This is depicted in the chart below, which shows how small-caps have underperformed as the yield curve has flattened. Some view aflattening yield curve as a leading indicator of recession.
Here are 10 stocks that meet these criteria, according to Goldman.
  1. Goodyear Tire & Rubber GT  (consumer discretionary)
  2. General Motors GM  (consumer discretionary)
  3. Tyson Foods TSN  (consumer staples)
  4. CVS Health CVS  (consumer staples)
  5. Pioneer Natural Resources PXD  (energy)
  6. J.P. Morgan Chase JPM  (financials)
  7. Bank of America BAC  (financials)
  8. Tenet Healthcare THC  (healthcare)
  9. Delta Air Lines DAL  (industrials)
  10. Salesforce.com CRM  (information technology)