Recovery in US won't occur until end 2009

Concerns about a slowing economy continued to cast investors into the sidelines.
Minutes of the FOMC meeting revealed that the FED thinks a
gradual recovery won’t occur until year-end. Many of the FED
members saw some risk of excessively low inflation for a
protracted period and a few even warned of deflation.

If the stock market typically moves 6 months ahead of the
economy and assuming a recovery by year-end earliest, which is
what our economist seems to believe as well, this will coincide
with our view for the STI to drift down first before bottoming
out somewhere in 2Q.

20th February 2009

US stocks to fall another 40%?

The report below is his answer.

Why U.S. Stocks Could Fall
AT LEAST Another 40%
by Claus Vogt

Every major fundamental indicator relied upon by stock market analysts is unanimously pointing to a stock price plunge of at least another 40% from current levels. That would take ...

• The S&P 500 down to the 500 level ...
  
  
• The Dow Jones Industrials to below 5000, and ...
  
  
• The Nasdaq to the low 900s.

Don't be surprised. To understand why, you need only step back from the trees and see the obvious chain of cause and effect:

You know that the major factor behind the current business cycle was — and is — a worldwide housing bubble and bust.

You also know that the bubble was driven by the speculative surge in mortgages and equity loans.

What you may not know is that, according to former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, that bubble accounted for 50% to 70% of GDP growth in recent years.

So it should come as no surprise that as soon as the mortgages and equity loans dried up, consumption and GDP growth began to take a huge hit.

Worse, the real estate bubble distorted the entire structure of the U.S. economy:

• It created grossly misplaced investments — second homes nobody really needed, massive numbers of people drawn into the real estate business as brokers and lenders, plus a whole new industry built around mortgage-backed securities.
  
  
• It created broad instability — too much consumption, too little savings, too many imports of goods from China and elsewhere — not to mention a huge current account deficit.
  
  
• It fostered unsound risk-taking by the financial sector — from Bear Stearns to Lehman Brothers, from Washington Mutual to Citibank, from Merrill Lynch to the hedge fund industry. And ...
  
  
• The end result was one of the largest, most unstable and most risky economic environments of modern times.

But now, with the bursting of the bubble,

The U.S. faces the monumental task of bringing this highly distorted economy back into alignment and putting the country back on a sound footing.

Investments that are not viable must be abandoned or aborted. A new equilibrium must be found. New price levels for stocks and all assets must be reached.

The two words commonly associated with this natural process? Recession and depression!

But you ask: Why so severe? And why must stocks fall so far?

For the simplest answer, consider the rule of thumb that has almost always held true concerning speculative bubbles: The bigger the bubble, the greater the distortions; and the greater the distortions, the graver the inevitable correction.

This rule alone leads me to expect a long, severe decline in the economy and the stock market; and this basic reasoning, in itself, supports my forecast for a 40%-or-more plunge in the broad stock market averages. But let's also take a look at the rest of my supporting arguments ...

Argument #1
U.S. Home Prices Continue to Fall

Consider the facts:

• Despite the unprecedented home price declines to date, the median price of an American home (compared to the median income a family earns) is still 15% above its average level of recent decades. In other words, homes are still overpriced by 15% or more.
  
  
• If you take the bubble years of 2002 — 2006 out of the equation, as any reasonable analyst would, then U.S. home prices are actually 20% out of whack.
  
  
• But that assumes the median income of U.S. households will not go down. If you factor in declines in income, home prices can fall even further.
  
  
• Moreover, once a bubble has burst, price corrections don't typically stop at some average statistical level; they overshoot to the downside.

Bottom line: You can expect home prices to continue to tumble. And you can expect all the ugly financial consequences of falling home prices to stay with us in the coming quarters — huge losses and bankruptcies in the banking sector.

Argument #2
The Current Crisis Is GLOBAL, Hitting
The Whole World Simultaneously
And Providing No Outside Support
To Offset U.S. Domestic Weakness

In 1990, when Japan's real estate bubble burst, the rest of the world was booming, helping Japan's export industry.

Unfortunately we don't have that kind of a cushion today. Quite the contrary, instead of relief from exports to other countries, the U.S. export sector is getting slammed by falling overseas demand. And a rising dollar will only make U.S. goods more expensive abroad, depressing demand and aggravating this problem.

Additionally, as usual in bad times, there are already strong hints of protectionism emerging around the word; the same kind of beggar-thy-neighbour policies that aggravated the Great Depression are gaining traction globally.

Argument #3
Based on Earnings, Stocks
Are Still FAR From Cheap

Let's start with the most widely followed fundamental indicator: P/E or the price/earnings ratio.

Right now the trailing 12-month P/E of the S&P 500 is 18. In other words, the average stock in the index is selling for 18 times its earnings of the past year.

That, in itself, is a very high multiple. It means that, on average, investors will have to wait a full 18 years before the investment they make in a company is matched by the accumulated earnings of the period (assuming the company can maintain its current level of profits).

Yes, 18 times earnings is much lower than it was in 1999 or 2000. But historically, 18 is still very high — even considering today's low interest rates.

See for yourself by taking a look at the following graph going all the way back to 1925. In this graph ...

Source: www.decisionpoint.com

• The black line shows the S&P 500 Index ...
  
  
• The red line shows how the S&P would have behaved if it had a constant P/E of 20, a level considered overvalued, and ...
  
  
• The green line shows how it would have behaved if it had a P/E of 10, which is borderline undervalued.

For 70 long years, from 1925 to 1995, the S&P rarely reached the overvalued level and even more rarely exceeded it. In contrast, this graph makes it very clear that the period between 1995 and 2008 is an extreme aberration in terms of this all-important stock market fundamental. It leaves no doubt that ...

In the long history of the U.S. stock market, stocks have almost always been much more moderately priced. But in the current period, stocks have been, and remain, broadly overpriced.

That alone argues for lower stock prices. But the argument is even stronger when you look at these two-decade spans:

• The 1930s and 1940s, plus
  
  
• The 1970s and 1980s

These two periods included secular (long-term) bear markets. And as you can see, during those periods, the S&P 500 often fell to levels corresponding to a P/E of less than 10.

That was especially true when the cyclical downturns in the market were accompanied by severe recessions, similar to what we're already experiencing today. Indeed ...

The P/E of the S&P 500 dropped to 7 during the recession of the mid-1970s — and it did it again in the recession of the early 1980s.

Even if the economic contraction could somehow be less severe this time ... even assuming no decline in corporate earnings ... and even if the P/E only declines from its current level of 18 to about 10 ... that alone would take the S&P 500 Index to my target level of 500 or lower!

Thus ...

• If the P/E of the average S&P stock were to plunge to 7 again, the market would fall to much lower levels, and ...
  
  
• If you factor in falling corporate earnings, it could fall STILL further.

So you can see that 500 for the S&P Index is not just a reasonable target. It's actually a conservative target, erring on the side of predicting fewer adverse consequences than may actually be the case.

Argument #4
Based on Dividend Yields, U.S.
Stocks Are Equally Overvalued

The dividend yield of the S&P 500 stocks — how much you can earn in dividends per dollar invested — draws an equally bleak picture:

• After being extremely depressed during the recent bubble years, the dividend yield of the S&P 500 has recovered somewhat to 3.39%. But despite this improvement, history tells us that the current level still signals a highly overvalued market.
  
  
• Solid, long-term buying opportunities don't come until you can get a dividend yield of 6% or more. But to reach that level, the dividend yield on S&P stocks needs to rise by 2.61 percentage points (3.39 + 2.61 = 6.00).
  
  
• Assuming no further dividend cuts or cancellations, to get those extra 2.61 points in yield, the price of the average S&P 500 stock would have to fall by 43.5%. (A stock selling for, say, $100 today and yielding 3.39% would have to fall to $56.50 to yield 6.00% — a stock price decline of 43.5%.)

In sum, the message from this fundamental indicator fully supports the conclusion I reached based on the P/E ratio: The market would have to fall by AT LEAST 40% or so — and that's assuming there are no further dividend cuts. But with dividend cuts inevitable, stocks will have to fall even further to match the 6% yield that might make them attractive again.

Argument #5
Earnings Are Falling, and
Doing So Conspicuously!

Earnings and earnings estimates are already down substantially since 2007, with no sign of let-up.

The following chart shows you the S&P 500 along with the GAAP-based earnings for its component stocks.

As you can see, the earnings are already down from $85 at the top of the cycle to $46 in the fourth quarter of last year. And earnings estimates for the first quarter 2009 are nearly 10% lower, at $42.

The dire situation we're in today: Companies' lack of pricing power — and a recession that leaves hardly any sector unscathed — virtually guarantees further declines in earnings, making the current market valuations even further out of line.

Source: www.decisionpoint.com

Argument #6
Earnings Will STAY Depressed
Longer Than Usual!

Among S&P 500 companies, profit margins reached an all-time high during this cycle, meaning that they must now fall back to a more normal level. This is what has happened in every major recession, and it's what almost inevitably will happen this time as well.

Specifically ...

• In 1966, profit margins hit a high of 6% and then fell back to 3.5% in 1970.
  
  
• In 1978, they rallied back up to 6% and then came all the way down to 2% by 1986.
  
  
• In 1997, they rose again to 5.5% and fell back to below 3% in 2002. And now ...
  
  
• In 2006, propelled by the big debt and high leverage of the recent bubble, they reached a record high of more than 8%.

But now, having started on a downward path again, it's highly improbable that profit margins will recover anytime soon.

Argument #7
Debt and Leverage Are Gone!

The facts here are even more shocking:

• At the top of this cycle, the profits of the financial sector reached up to 30% of all S&P 500 earnings — thanks to psychedelic leveraging and drunken risk-taking.
  
  
• Now, nearly all the extreme leverage in the financial sector — and nearly all the leverage financial institutions were providing other industries through 2007 — is no more.

Without a doubt, the forced sobering of the banking industry will have a long-lasting impact, and there is no way we can expect an early comeback of the old greedy days of Wall Street.

Argument #8
The Undeniable History of
Speculative Bubbles

Throughout history, after the bursting of every speculative bubble, prices almost invariably revert back to the level corresponding to the beginning of the bubble. In other words ...

Whatever boost the bubble gives to prices and values ... the ensuing bust inevitably takes it ALL back.

This held true for the global stock market bubble that burst in 1929 and for the Japanese stock and real estate bubbles that burst in the early 1990s. And if you go all the way back to the South Sea bubble, which burst in 1720, you will see this very same pattern.

So our task is simple: To identify the price level of the S&P 500 at the juncture when this entire moon shot was first launched.

And based on objective measures like the S&P's dividend yield or P/E ratio, we know quite well where and when that was:

The U.S. stock market bubble began in 1995, when the S&P 500 broke above the 500 level ... and it reached its climax in 2000, when the P/E ratio of U.S. stocks reached nosebleed levels of 38 on the S&P 500 and more than 200 on the Nasdaq.

Plus, there can now be little doubt that ...

Ever since 2000, the U.S. stock market has been in a protracted bear market!

To be sure, after the first two years of the bear market in 2000-2002, the Fed engineered a real estate bubble, which, in turn, produced a parallel stock market rally that prevailed during most of the middle years of this decade.

But now we can look back at the entire mid-decade rally and see it for what it really was: A mere interlude in a nine-year bear market (so far!) that began at the turn of the millennium.

So, looking back at history and looking ahead, it would not be unusual in the least to see the S&P 500 fall all the way back to the original starting level of approximately 500 for the S&P, validating and revalidating my forecast.

Will This Bear Market and Recession EVER End?

Of course it will, eventually. And when it does, incredible bargain opportunities will abound. But to make sure you can buy them, you must do two things:

(1) Keep your assets intact and ...

(2) Wait patiently for that day.

Godzilla vs. King Kong

An epic battle being waged
by Jack Crooks

Dear Subscriber,

There is a battle being waged now in the world of economics. This battle is fierce. And no matter who wins, the impact will be felt far and wide. I dub this epoch struggle: "Godzilla vs. King Kong"

I'm not sure who will win, but I do have a favorite.

What I'm talking about is the intellectual and tactical battle concerning the best way to deal with the nasty recession engulfing us from a monetary and fiscal policy perspective.

There Are Two Basic
Schools of Thought Here ...

King Kong School — Intellectual Leader is Milton Friedman (Money Supply Theory)

Milton Friedman believed that the government should flood the economy with massive amounts of money to enhance and increase consumer demand.

Basic Premise: In order to keep the current recession from turning into a depression as we witnessed in 1929, the government must stimulate the economy with massive amounts of money so that we can enhance and increase consumer demand.

This is where Mr. Bernanke and President Obama's advisors reside.

Godzilla School — Intellectual Leader is Irving Fischer (Debt-Deflation Theory)

Irving Fischer's Debt-Deflation Theory holds that the government must let the invisible cleansing hand of the market wash away the debt before economic growth can resume.

Basic Premise: In order to keep the current recession from turning into a depression as we witnessed in 1929, the government must step-back and let the invisible cleansing hand of the market wash away the debt before any real economic growth can again take hold in the economy.

Here is the outline for this theory:

1. Debt liquidation leads to distress selling
   
   
2. The amount of deposit currency falls and the velocity of currency in circulation slows
   
   
3. Prices plunge and the dollar rises
   
   
4. Business values fall further
   
   
5. Corporate profits tumble
   
   
6. Output, trade and employment take a header
   
   
7. Pessimism and loss of confidence spread like wildfire
   
   
8. Hoarding becomes commonplace and the velocity of currency circulation comes to a standstill
   
   
9. Complicated disturbances erupt in the rates of interest: a fall in the nominal rates and a rise in the real rates

My Favorite —
The Good Old Godzilla

And for this primary reason ...

When debt levels reach such huge proportions in an economy, pumping more money into the system is ineffective because the velocity of money declines.

Let me explain the term "monetary velocity" and how important it is:

Monetary velocity means how fast money is circulated in the economy — the speed in which it is spent. And it is a key measure in the definition of economic growth.

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Now stay with me ... while I explain this simple equation:

M x V = P x O

M = Money Supply

V= Velocity

P = Price Level

O= Economic Output

Ben Bernanke and those in control of U.S. economic policy believe that if the "M" in this equation is lifted, it will impact prices (reduce the deflationary scare) and output (economic growth) accordingly.

But here's the rub: When debt levels become so huge, people get scared. They save, hoard and use their money to pay down debt. They don't take on more debt or run out and spend more just because the money supply has been increased by the government.

In fact, more money pumped into the system only adds to the total debt in the economy, and therefore prolongs the downturn.

The practical policy is to accept the fact that "V" shrinks dramatically at times like these — thus we have the big dip in "O" (output) and "P" (prices).

Here is How the Market
Cleanses the System ...

Debts get paid down; reserves are rebuilt with increased consumer and institutional savings. This provides the eventual pool of capital for fresh growth.

At a time of major risk aversion, the world will flock to its reserve currency — the U.S. dollar.

And once the debt is removed, monetary velocity "V" increases to more normal levels; therefore tinkering with money supply isn't necessary.

Sadly, I think, all governments are on the side of King Kong. And their flood-the-market monetary policies may make this global recession a whole lot worse.

So from a currency perspective I think it means this: We will be locked in a sustained period of risk aversion (rising unemployment, deflation, and sovereign debt defaults) as this crisis plays out. And in a world of major risk aversion, that mantle rests at the feet of the world reserve currency — the U.S. dollar.

Best wishes,

Jack

This Bailout Is Great!

By Richard Gibbons
January 30, 2009

A lot of people have been complaining about the bailouts. This is understandable. The basis of capitalism is that the strong survive, while the weak collapse. It's galling to see people rewarded for failure.

The problem is that, as a country, we can't make decisions based simply on anger or capitalistic dogma. We have a responsibility to do whatever will help ensure this country's future prosperity. And right now, that means bailing out the banks, increasing regulation, and stimulating the economy.

Capitalism's blind spot
Capitalism works well, generally allocating resources efficiently. It's the reason why there's usually food on the supermarket shelves, while there often wasn't in the U.S.S.R.

But capitalism has its blind spots, too. In a capitalist system, it's rational for bank executives to take huge risks in order to pad bonuses based on short-term metrics. Bank executives don't care about systemic risks -- often they barely care about their own shareholders. So, regulation is necessary to reduce systemic risk.

Unfortunately, our regulators disliked regulation, and last year, the resulting crisis drove the banking system to the brink of collapse.

House of cards
And I really mean collapse. Of the big five investment banks, only Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) are still standing, with Lehman, Bear Stearns, and Merrill Lynch all either bankrupt or sold.

Same with the biggest retail banks. Citigroup (NYSE: C) fell from over $50 per share to under $5 per share despite huge cash infusions, and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) looks to be getting there. Wachovia, the fourth-biggest bank, was acquired. Washington Mutual, the sixth-biggest, became the biggest failure in U.S. banking history.

Without government assistance, it seems likely that most of the top-tier banks would have collapsed. As if that weren't enough, the Bank Insurance Fund (BIF) -- which provides deposit insurance -- has less than $100 billion, enough to cover only 1.01% of outstanding deposits. Citigroup alone has over $600 billion in deposits. By itself, Washington Mutual would have drained the BIF if the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. hadn't used sleight of hand to transfer WaMu's operations to JPMorgan (NYSE: JPM).

With widespread bank failures, deposit insurance would falter, and the taxpayers would be footing the bill regardless. That's why we see all these acquisitions -- because the banking system can't handle the failures. It's cheaper for the country to just save the banks.

The domino effect
If we do let the banks go under, there will be huge problems, because our whole economic system runs on credit. How many small companies use lines of credits to handle seasonality in their businesses? How many large companies rely on sales of commercial paper? If that money is unavailable, many completely viable businesses will go under because of liquidity issues.

Any company that uses debt is vulnerable. Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) is practically invincible in any normal situation. But it has $35 billion in net debt. What happens when its lenders ask for some of that money back, and it has to borrow at 15% to get the cash? Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) has $41 billion in net debt. When nobody wants to lend, how do you borrow $41 billion?

What happens when the farmers, truckers, and other businesses making up the backbone of our infrastructure, fail? Will there still be food on the supermarket shelves? I don't know, but I'm not eager to find out.

A New Deal
In fact, the history of the Great Depression shows what happens when you start killing the banking system. Between 1929 and 1933, about one in five banks went under. As you'd expect, these bank failures took a massive toll on the economy, with real GDP falling by 29% and unemployment hitting 25%.

At that point, President Franklin Roosevelt stepped in with a plan called the "New Deal." He shut down the banks and allowed only sound banks to reopen. He passed the Emergency Banking Act, which made federal loans available to banks. Then, he enacted the Glass-Steagall Act, establishing deposit insurance and preventing depository banks from being investment banks, reducing the risk of banks blowing up because of bad investments. (Unfortunately, Glass-Steagall was repealed in 1999, which is one reason why banks were able to trade asset-backed securities (ABS) and blow up the system nine years later.)

After these actions restored confidence in the banking system, Roosevelt focused on employment through numerous public works projects and agricultural programs.

The results of this government intervention were impressive. GDP skyrocketed from 1933 to 1937, posting real growth of 9.4% annually -- a huge rate for a developed country. Unemployment fell to 14.3%.

Reasons for optimism
Warren Buffett knows this history, and that's probably why he said that the bank bailout was "absolutely necessary to avoid going over the precipice." Now he's confident that America will bounce back.

The government's actions have helped to restore confidence in the banking system -- a TED spread down from 5 to 1 indicates that banks are more willing to lend to each other now than any time since September. Now, President Obama, like Roosevelt, is working on programs to help Americans get back to work.

The Foolish bottom line
To me, it seems likely that these government interventions will pave the road to recovery. The world's richest man seems to agree, and says that if stocks continue to trade at bargain prices, he'll put his entire personal portfolio into equities. That's why I think now is the time to find undervalued stocks, invest, and grow rich.

Warren Buffet's advice for 2009

We begin this New Year with dampened enthusiasm and dented optimism. Our happiness is diluted and our peace is threatened by the financial illness that has infected our families, organizations and nations. Everyone is desperate to find a remedy that will cure their financial illness and help them recover their financial health. They expect the financial experts to provide them with remedies, forgetting the fact that it is these experts who created this financial mess.

Every new year, I adopt a couple of old maxims as my beacons to guide my future. This self-prescribed therapy has ensured that with each passing year, I grow wiser and not older. This year, I invite you to tap into the financial wisdom of our elders along with me, and become financially wiser.

* Hard work: All hard work bring a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.

* Laziness: A sleeping lobster is carried away by the water current.

* Earnings: Never depend on a single source of income. [At least make your Investments get you second earning.]

* Spending: If you buy things you don't need, you'll soon sell things you need.

* Savings: Don't save what is left after spending; Spend what is left after saving.

* Borrowings: The borrower becomes the lender's slave.

* Accounting: It's no use carrying an umbrella, if your shoes are leaking.

* Auditing: Beware of little expenses; a small leak can sink a large ship.

* Risk-taking: Never test the depth of the river with both feet. [Have an alternate plan ready.]

* Investment: Don't put all your eggs in one basket.

I'm certain that those who have already been practicing these principles remain financially healthy. I'm equally confident that those who resolve to start practicing these principles will quickly regain their financial health.

Let us become wiser and lead a happy, healthy, prosperous and peaceful life.


__._,_.___

Blame USA - World Economic Forum

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao blamed his country's problems on America, saying:

An IMF spokesperson said:

"Unless stronger financial strains and uncertainties are forcefully addressed, the pernicious feedback loop between real activity and financial markets will intensify, leading to even more toxic effects on global growth."

Russian Premier Vladimir Putin pointed

"Today, investment banks, the pride of Wall Street, have virtually ceased to exist."

An IMF spokesperson said:

"Unless stronger financial strains and uncertainties are forcefully addressed, the pernicious feedback loop between real activity and financial markets will intensify, leading to even more toxic effects on global growth."

Still neutral on auto sector

Predictions for 2009 by Martin Weiss

1. Unemployment in US to reach at least 16%

2. Unstoppable chain reaction of bankruptcies

3. Government will give up bailing-out/saving companies

4. Fed reserve deficit will exceed US$2 trillions

5. Dow to sink to 5500

6. Real estate collapse goes into advanced stage

7. In 2009, Great financial dustbowl striking all forms of income

7 Startling Forecasts for 2009
Edited Transcript of Emergency Video
with Martin D. Weiss, Mike Larson,
Larry Edelson and Bentley Radcliff

Martin Weiss: We've called this emergency conference to help you prepare for the next phase of the worst debt crisis in our lifetime.

If you haven't prepared so far, based on our early predictions of what we saw coming in the future, do it now based on your own perceptions of what you see happening in the present!

There's no law, rule or ethic that requires you to sit there quietly and accept financial punishment passively. You have every right to get your money to safety without delay and without remorse. You have every mechanism to build wealth, income and revenues that can get you through this crisis. Our goal today is to show you how.

To support that effort, I've invited a panel of Weiss Research analysts, each with a unique vision and talent.

Mike Larson has emerged as one of the nation's leading and most sought-after financial experts — not only on the housing crisis where he trumped nearly all his peers, but also on banks, interest rates, unemployment and the entire U.S. economy. Mike will play the lead role in offering up the seven forecasts for 2009 that we want to cover today.

Larry Edelson long ago staked out a stellar reputation — not only as an expert on gold, but also as a forward-looking thinker on one of the most vital issues of our day: Inflation vs. deflation. Today, we've invited Larry to question and probe each of our major forecasts, while offering a major forecast of his own.

And for the first time, I also want to introduce you to a long-time friend of mine, who has developed a unique, new technology designed to quickly boost your ability to generate income and profits for you and your family.

Our first step is to gain a clearer vision of what's likely to happen in 2009 — what new disasters or opportunities await us on the near horizon and beyond, plus what to do about them right now!

Mike Larson: Before we talk about coming events, I think we need to take a look at the amazing drama that's unfolding on the stage right here and now: The unscripted, unrehearsed, unprecedented performance of the actors on the front line in Washington. The economy is falling so fast, it's slipping away from them.

Martin: And everyone is livid about the $700 billion TARP boondoggle.

Mike: It's easy to see why. Last September, then-U.S. Treasury secretary Paulson basically said to Congress, "If you don't act quickly and dramatically, we're going to have a disaster on our hands — the worst Wall Street meltdown anyone has ever experienced." Now, the new administration is saying to Congress, "If you don't act quickly and dramatically, we're going to have a disaster on our hands — the worst Main Street meltdown anyone has ever experienced."

Larry Edelson: And that's not Martin Weiss talking. It's Barack Obama talking!

Mike: The TARP money has been sucked into a financial black hole. Now, everyone is afraid the same thing will happen to the stimulus money: It'll disappear into the financial black hole of hundreds of millions of households and businesses all over the country. Everyone will hoard the money.

Martin: So the crucial debate in Congress right now is not really about how big the package should be, is it?

Mike: No, the big debate is: "How in the heck can we get the money into the hands of people who will spend it and put it back into the economy?" That's the real challenge. If they give it to companies, it's socked away to improve their balance sheets. If they give it to rich people, it just goes into their bank accounts. If they give it to the middle class, it goes into their rainy day funds. If they give it to lower income people, they spend it at Wal-Mart and most of it goes to China.

The proof is that the first $350 billion in TARP money has already disappeared into bank balance sheets. For most people, it's no easier to get loans today than it was before Washington handed that $350 billion to the banks.

Martin: How do we know that?

Mike: The Fed's own surveys of bank loan officers! Those surveys clearly show that banks are tightening their lending standards despite the TARP money.

Martin: Now, confidence has plunged — and all the free handouts in the world can't buy it back.

Larry: Pardon the interruption, but it seems to me that most people are not convinced the government's stimulus package will fail. Yet that seems to be the foundation of your arguments.

Martin: I think our reasons will become apparent as we go into our seven forecasts for 2009.

Forecast #1

Mike: Here's our first forecast: AT LEAST 10% unemployment. If you include discouraged and part-time workers, it will be at least 16%.

Larry: You made this gloomy forecast a few months ago, and few people on Wall Street believed you. But not anymore! Now I'm hearing similar forecasts from establishment economists as well.

Martin: A few months ago, establishment economists were denying the existence of this recession. Now, they're making the same mistake again, denying the existence of this emerging depression. So let me define the term clearly:

A depression is a very severe, multi-year decline in the economy, bringing mass unemployment to every industry and massive financial losses to the majority of the population.

That's what's beginning now — a depression. When historians look back at this era, they will probably pinpoint the fourth quarter of 2008 or the first quarter of 2009 as the beginning of America's Second Great Depression.

Also, a few months ago, most economists underestimated the speed and duration of the financial crisis on Wall Street. Now, they're making the same mistake again with respect to the jobs crisis on Main Street. In the next 60 days, they're going to be shocked at how fast it hits ... and later, they're going to be shocked again to see how long the jobs crisis can continue. In a depression, you could see unemployment sit at double digits for years!

Forecast #2

Mike: Here's our second forecast: An unstoppable chain reaction of bankruptcies.

Larry: We see the threat, of course. But hasn't the government been able to bail out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? Didn't it just save General Motors and Chrysler? Isn't it guaranteeing too-big-to-fail institutions like AIG and Citigroup?

Mike: The government has rescued the failing companies that made headlines. But it hasn't stopped the stampede to the bankruptcy courts by individuals and less-than-giant companies.

In the third quarter of 2008, personal bankruptcies shot up 30%. Business bankruptcies shot up 49%. And that was before the economy crashed in the fourth quarter. You're talking about potentially hundreds of thousands of companies. The government can't bail them all out. It can't even bail out some of the larger companies filing for Chapter 11.

Martin: And you have a list of failed companies to support that.

Mike: Actually, I have two lists. The first is a list of some of the largest companies that have already filed for Chapter 11 since January 1, 2008.

Lehman Brothers was the biggest. Just to give you a sense of the magnitude of the Lehman failure, it went down with 21 times the assets of Indymac Bancorp — and Indymac itself had been one of the largest bank failures in history.

Larry: By comparison, Circuit City is far smaller.

Mike: It has almost 1,500 stores around the country. But it's dwarfed by the financial failures. Wachovia was 87 times larger. Lehman Brothers was 185 times larger.

Martin: Until recently, it looked like the industries getting hit the hardest were real estate or financial related. And now ....

Mike: That's continuing. But it's also spreading — to retail companies, to media companies, even telecom companies. That's the first list. The second list is nonfinancial companies that we believe are candidates for failure in 2009.

Martin: We covered the financial companies in our event last year.

Mike: Right. Among the automakers, the first two are obvious: General Motors and Chrysler. But we also think Ford is at risk of failure.

Among air transport companies, the ones at the highest risk of failure are Jet Blue, Air Tran, US Airways, and Air Canada. Then, we have a pretty long list of retail companies at high risk as well: Claire's, Loehmann's Holding, Duane Reade, Finlay Enterprises, Bon-Ton Stores, Gottschalks, Saks Fifth Avenue, Talbots, Gap, Sears, Kmart, Best Buy, and even Macy's.

Larry: You say General Motors and Chrysler are obvious. And, yes, we all know they're failed enterprises. But by putting them on this list, do you mean to imply that the government is going to let them file for Chapter 11?

Mike: Either it's going to force them to downsize to a shadow of their former selves or it's going to let them fail. Either way, they will cause tremendous job losses. Either way, these companies could virtually fade into the sunset.

Forecast #3

Let me express that forecast more explicitly: In 2009, the U.S. government will have to give up saving most of these companies!

Larry: Why?

Martin: Let me answer that question: First, because the losses at these companies will be far larger than their losses last year. Remember, the damage they suffered in 2008 was before the economy tanked. Now, in 2009, with millions of new jobs lost, you're going to see far higher delinquency rates on mortgages, credit cards, auto loans and other consumer credit. That will rip a hole in the bond and derivative portfolios of insurers like AIG. It will tear apart the consumer loan portfolios of banks like Citigroup. And it will gut the sales of automakers.

Second, you'll be able to count on your fingers the members of Congress willing to vote for big company bailouts while millions of unemployed Americans are not getting the help they demand. They voted for the TARP package by holding their nose, and now most regret their vote. Later this year, every Congressman alive will begin to realize that the faster they throw money at bankrupt companies, the faster they'll be thrown out of office.

Third, the government itself is going to run out of resources because of the difficulties in financing the federal deficit ...

Forecast #4

Mike: ... which brings us to our fourth forecast: The federal deficit will balloon to at least $2 trillion.

Larry: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) says it's going to be $1.2 trillion, which is already about triple last year's deficit and is already shattering the record for every deficit since World War II. But you're saying it could go to $2 trillion.

Mike: No. We're saying it could go to at least $2 trillion!

Larry: I agree. And I think it's because the CBO's assumptions are full of holes — because their $1.2 trillion deficit projection doesn't factor in the cost of the Obama stimulus package.

Martin: Because they assume no depression, no debt disaster, no more mega-failures.

Mike: They don't even factor in the impact the deficit itself will have on the private credit markets. If the government is borrowing trillions just to finance its deficit, private borrowers won't be able to borrow to finance their business or even roll over their existing debts. That means sinking revenues from corporations and even bigger federal deficits.

Martin: Fundamentally, all the government is doing is replacing one debt crisis — on Wall Street — with another debt crisis — in Washington. The key is: What does this mean for interest rates?

Mike: They've got to go back up.

Martin: Yes, but for retirees living on fixed income, the primary concern is this: How far are interest rates going up? Can they go up far enough to make a difference, to provide enough income to live on?

Mike: I wish I could say the answer is "yes." But if you're looking for fixed-income opportunities, the choices in 2009 are going to range from the least of the evils to the worst of the evils.

Larry: What's the worst of the evils?

Mike: The worst of the evils is corporate bonds. Yes, they pay you better interest at first. But in a widespread bankruptcy crisis, too many companies — even formerly high-rated companies — will default on their interest payments. And whether they default or not, your principal is in danger because most corporate bond prices will plunge.

The least of the evils is short-term Treasuries — Treasury bills or Treasury-only money market funds. You're safe. You can sleep nights. But you earn virtually no interest. Nevertheless, this is the type of safe haven where you should keep up to 90% of your money.

The in-between approach is not so evil, but it's still a bad choice. I'm talking about long-term Treasuries — Treasury bonds and even notes. Yes, they give you some yield. But those yields are ridiculously low, especially when you consider that you're looking down the barrel of roughly $2 trillion in new Treasuries hitting the market this year to finance the deficit. With that avalanche of new supply, the price of existing bonds will fall. So if you invest in long-term Treasury bonds, any yield you pick up will likely be wiped out by a decline in the price of your bonds.

Short-term Treasuries do not have the same kind of price risk as long-term bonds. So we can comfortably continue to recommend short-term T-bills for the ultimate in safety. But don't count on their yields to rise far enough in 2009 to pay for your living expenses.

Martin: A lot of investors also have municipal bonds.

Mike: Sure they do. But the finances of local governments are deteriorating with amazing speed. They may get some help from the federal government, but not nearly enough to avert massive defaults.

Martin: Cleary, if it's more income and profits that you want, you've got to look elsewhere.

Forecast #5

Mike: But it's certainly not going to be in the stock market, which is the focus of our next forecast: The Dow is headed to 5500.

Larry: That's a long way from here. What's going to drive it down that far?

Mike: All the things we just talked about — surging unemployment, which is making consumers slam their pocketbooks shut ... surging corporate bankruptcies, which wipes out the stock values of failed companies ... and the ballooning federal deficit, which drives out corporate borrowers.

Martin: Plus, there's one more critical factor: Deflation! Deflation is a killer for stock prices. Every time you pay less for gasoline, apparel, toys or computers, the companies selling those products suffer a direct hit to their bottom line. That, in turn, sends shock waves up the food chain — to manufacturers, wholesalers, shippers and suppliers. Sales plunge everywhere.

Mike: Look at it this way: Companies get a break on the price of commodities and raw materials, but they also have large fixed costs — costs that are much harder to cut: Labor. Interest. Rent. Utilities.

Martin: Meanwhile, the deflation feeds on itself.

Mike: Right. Consumers figure they can get a better price later ... so they delay their purchases. Inventories pile up in the shops ... so merchants cut their prices even further. Corporate profits are creamed. That's what's killing Detroit. Prices are falling on new cars; and prices are plunging as much as 50% on used cars. So would-be car buyers freeze, waiting for a better price, forcing Detroit to slash prices even more.

Martin: That's what's happening in almost every industry and every business.

Mike: That's why so many auto dealers are going broke, why retail chains are going broke. Wall Street can play its little games, and stocks can have their interim rallies. Washington can stand in the way for a while by offering up big stimulus packages and bailouts. But our forecast pulls no punches: The powerful market and economic forces we just discussed will win out; and they drive the Dow to 5500.

At the same time, stock dividends are going to be cut and cancelled left and right.

Martin: I assume there are going to be exceptions, which is what Nilus Mattive is so good at finding. Plus, he has strategies for protecting you against the downside with hedges. But overall, it's going to be a lot tougher for dividends.

Mike: Look at what has already happened just in the last few months ...

• Citigroup was the nation's third-biggest dividend payer in early 2008. Now, it has cut its quarterly dividend by a whopping 94% — to a meager penny a share.
• Bank of America cut its quarterly dividend in HALF.
• Carnival is suspending its dividends for all of 2009.
• Genworth Financial, Scripps, Strategic Hotels & Resorts are also suspending their dividends.
• Group 1 Automotive is slashing its dividend by 64%.
• KB Home is slashing its dividend by 75%.

Overall, dividend payments in the fourth quarter suffered their worst decline since 1958.

Forecast #6

Martin: Mike, this all started with real estate, which is your specialty. Is that bust over?

Mike: I wish it were! But the flat answer is "no", which leads me to our sixth forecast: Expect a new, more advanced phase in the real estate collapse.

The declines in home values are not ending. The delinquencies are not going to stop. What's changing now is that, with unemployment surging and the economy sinking, you're going to see real estate income drying up.

You're going to see surging personal bankruptcies driving some of the best tenants to do things they rarely did in the past: Bounce rent checks, walk away from their leases, abandon deposits.

It's been ugly in the residential sector. And it's going to be equally ugly in the commercial sector ...

• The American Institute of Architects has a reliable indicator of future construction activity. If their business is plunging, it means that future commercial construction will soon be plunging, and their index has done just that — it has just plunged to a record low of 34.7.
• Moody's has a solid Commercial Property Price Index. It has dropped in 10 out of the last 14 months.
• Sublease space has already been flooding the office market. Rents have already started falling. And that's before the big surge in unemployment and retail store bankruptcies that we're seeing right now, and which we're going to continue seeing for months to come.

Larry: People already know that home equity and home equity loans have been vaporized. It used to be the #1 source of retirement capital — and the largest asset most people had to get them through tough times.

But that's gone or completely unavailable — no buyers, no banks willing to lend against it. And now you're telling us that the cash flow coming from income properties is also going to be toast?

Mike: Yes. Don't count on earnings from your own income property, either residential or commercial. And don't count on the income from investments in real estate companies, like Real Estate Investment Trusts. It's going to dry up.

Larry: But what about all the people who lose their homes? Won't they need a place to rent? Won't that drive up rental demand?

Mike: Sounds logical, but that's not how it happens in a depression. Money is scarce everywhere. A lot more people miss rent payments. It takes time to replace them with paying tenants. And there are always many more rental units than money to pay for them.

Forecast #7

Now for our final, overarching forecast: 2009 will be the year of the Great Financial Dustbowl. When future historians write their chapter on 2009, they will put it down as the year in which America suffered a great money famine of epic dimensions.

Martin: When you add everything up, it all boils down to falling income — millions of paychecks gone with the wind; interest income slashed to virtually nil; dividend income delayed, reduced or cancelled; capital losses from stocks; home equity, gone.

For many Americans, the scene is ugly: Bills piling up; homes, cars — everything they've worked a lifetime for — repossessed; a giant wave of personal bankruptcies; the shame of becoming a charity case, dependent on their families or government handouts.

Larry: I agree it's ugly. But may I make one more forecast of my own?

Martin: That's the main reason I asked you to join.

Larry: It's actually more of a warning than a forecast. There's a fundamental fallacy in all the policies in Washington and all the theories on Wall Street today. They think deflation somehow cures inflation. But that's simply not true. Inflationary forces are akin to the human diseases that produce high blood pressure. A weak heart or clogged arteries do not magically disappear just because the patient's pressure has fallen to dangerously low levels. Likewise, the fundamental causes of inflation do not disappear just because prices have plunged to new lows.

But whether it's deflation or inflation, I agree there's one undeniable reality that everyone is going to have to face up to: This is the year that income is going to take a massive hit.

2009 will be the year of falling income. You saw this coming — and now it's here. The big unanswered question is: "How will investors make sure their family has enough money to survive in comfort and safety?"

Martin: When I first saw this crisis coming many months ago, that's the question I asked every single day of the week. I asked myself. I asked our experts. I asked our staff. I realized then that simply warning about the crisis was not enough. I realized that even our services providing buy-and-sell recommendations to investors may not be enough. I decided then that, as a company, to truly help more people through this crisis, Weiss Research had to go beyond anything we'd ever done before and step up to a new level — to the level of personal empowerment.

I want to empower you, our readers, to create a stream of profits on your own, independently, without paying for an investment service, without relying on anyone else. I still want our experts to be there for you if you run into snags or have questions. But I want you to gain the knowledge, the skills, the confidence ... and with those, the power.

Larry: That's quite an ambitious goal.

Martin: Yes, it is, and it presented us with two major challenges. The first challenge was what I saw coming dead ahead — these extremely hard times we're now sinking into. Not just an ordinary recession! Not just a quick debt crisis that comes and goes! But an unparalleled, continuing, escalating debt crisis, followed by a depression that rivals the 1930s in severity and duration.

Larry: Then, it was coming. Now, it's here.

Martin: Yes, it sure is. But we have the solution. We have clear access to a market that is outside the domain of stocks, bonds, real estate or anything that's adversely impacted by this crisis — a market where you have continuing profit opportunities, even in the worst-case scenario.

It's a market that always has a bull market regardless of what's going on in the world. And it's a market that is now open to all investors — long-term investors aiming for steady, double-digit returns; medium-term investors looking for high, double-digit profits; and short-term traders looking for triple-digit gains in short bursts of time.

Larry: You're talking about the currency market.

Martin: Exactly. Our currency experts have told you about it many times. Now, I want our readers to be empowered with their experience, with their know-how, their money-making skills.

Larry: What was your second challenge?

Martin: To get investors there quickly and easily. Typically, the path to empowerment — to gain the knowledge and the skills you need to make good money with relative consistency — is a long road. But I knew that the fuse on the economy was short. I knew that you might not have the luxury of time for a long learning curve. You needed an innovative solution that could cut through all that and deliver more rapidly.

Larry: What was your solution to that challenge?

Martin: That's when I invited my good friend, Bentley Radcliff, to rejoin Weiss Research, and he's here to join us in this emergency conference right now.

Bentley, I'm so glad you're here. Your father, Alan Radcliff, was a close friend of my father and then my close friend as well. That's how we met originally. How old were you then?

Bentley Radcliff: I met your father when I was just graduating high school. Your son, Anthony, wasn't born yet. Then, as soon as I graduated college, I joined Weiss Research. I think you had about eight other employees then. How many do you have now? 200?

Martin: Over 200. Then you left to ...

Bentley: ... to eventually launch my own company, which is an innovator in the field of simulation and training technology for Fortune 500 companies.

Martin: I'm glad you left us nearly three decades ago.

Bentley: You are?

Martin: Yes, because I absolutely love what you've created in the interim. I think it's the most advanced, easiest-to use training technology in the world today.

Bentley: Thank you, Martin. But I didn't do this all by myself! I have a great team of designers and engineers. Plus, I have to give credit to the amazingly valuable input I got from my customers.

Martin: Such as ...

Bentley: HP, IBM, Sun Microsystems, Xerox, LaSalle Bank, Scottrade, plus crash training for Northrop Grumman for special forces in Iraq.

Martin: Bentley, we don't have that much time left. So let me bring this story up to the present: Last year, when I saw this unusual crisis looming ahead, you and I decided we absolutely had to do something equally unusual, and that would only be possible by bringing your company's team and my company's team together. You brought us your advanced training technology.

Bentley: And you have Weiss Research's experts and unique abilities in the financial markets.

Martin: Putting them together, the result is a quick, exciting way for the average investor to build a virtual money machine — not only to learn how to make money, but also to put it into practice quickly.

Larry: Could you give us an overview?

Martin: It has three components. The first component is the academy. You attend in the comfort of your living room, through your TV set. Or better yet, you can attend the academy online through your computer. Either on your TV or online, this is where the Weiss Research experts come to you on video, to walk you through the paces, step by step.

Larry: No lectures or homework?

Bentley: No, nothing like that! Just a lively, exciting conversation with the experts. This is where you get the money-making skills.

Martin: Exactly. The next component is where you get the live practice to gain confidence, where you watch the experts trade.

Larry: No risk.

Martin: No, the experts take all the risk with their money. You're just a spectator. You learn from their successes.

Larry: And I bet you learn even more from their mistakes.

Martin: Yes, I'm sure. But I repeat: It's their money on the line, not yours. The third component is when you go for making money, when you start cranking up your personal money machine. You don't need the Weiss Research experts at that point. But they're still there for you when you want them, to help you through any rough spots or answer any questions.

What we do is to help you build a personal money machine for yourself as quickly as possible. And to help make sure you avoid the pitfalls. Whenever you invest money, you risk money. There's no getting around that. But we show you how to get around any hidden landmines.

Larry: I was not involved in this project. But from everything I've heard and seen so far, I can tell you what I like about it ... plus what I don't like about it.

Bentley: Don't like about it?

Larry: What I don't like is that I still am not sure exactly what it is. Are we talking about a course? A seminar? A service?

Bentley: I'm sorry. It's a comprehensive learning package that gives you everything you need to make money in currencies. First, the training DVDs; then, the online trading room; and finally, a full year of expert support.

Larry: OK. That's clearer. Now, let me tell you what I like about it: If you can help train soldiers to go into Iraq, then you can certainly train people to trade currencies!

The second thing I like is this: For the last couple of years, Weiss Research's currency experts have repeatedly told us — repeatedly demonstrated — that it doesn't matter if we have deflation or inflation. No matter what, currencies continue to chug along, day after day, month after month.

The third thing I like is that, from what you told me this morning, you cover all the major currency instruments. But since our viewers weren't there, could you go through that with us again here?

Martin: Currency CDs, currency ETFs, currency options and cash currencies. There are experts who specialize in one instrument or the other. But this is the first time anyone has put all four together in one package.

Larry: Martin, can you tell me what the income or profit potential is on each of those instruments?

Martin: Sure. Our experts show you how to use currency CDs. They're best for the longer term approach; and when you add the yield and the capital gains, the potential there is for nice, double-digit total returns.

Our experts then show you how to invest in currency ETFs, where you can go for high, double-digit returns.

They show you how to invest in World Currency Options, where you can go for triple-digit profits in a short period of time.

And if you're willing to take the risk, they walk you through the steps to go for the truly big leverage available in cash currencies.

Larry: The last thing I like about this is that it's better than a home business and ...

Martin: Larry, I'm sorry to cut you off. In a couple of invitations for this event, we presented it as a home business opportunity and I regret that because I think some people misunderstood. Yes, you CAN make it into a home business if you want. But it's still about investing and trading, which is very different from a home business.

Larry: I didn't say it's a home business. I said it's better than a home business. You can set your own hours, whatever time of day is most convenient for you. You can do it anywhere — your home, your office, on vacation, anywhere in the world. All you need is a computer and an Internet connection. You're your own boss. If you want to take a day, a week or a month off and just enjoy life, no problem. It gives you the opportunity for income and capital gains no matter how ugly this recession becomes. It lets you start with investments that sell for peanuts and then up the ante as you go. It lets you start with lower risk instruments and then move up to more speculative instruments.

Martin: But I want to stress that it's not a black box. It won't do it for you automatically. You do have to get personally involved in the process. Our experts will guide you. They're there with you every step of the way. But they can't do it for you. So just wait for our package. Then jump in.

Larry: When exactly is this all going to be released?

Bentley: February 5. That's our official release date.

Larry: So when do I order this?

Martin: Up to you. But you can save a lot of money by pre-ordering before the release date.

Larry: Do we have time for more questions about this? I have a few and I think our viewers probably do as well.

Martin: Not really. But as soon as this event ends, you can go to our web page for more information. So hopefully, that page will answer any pending questions.

Larry: OK. Just one last question then, if I may. Suppose I decide, for whatever reason, this is not for me. What do I do?

Martin: No problem. Take 30 days. You can peruse it superficially, fast-forward through the videos, check out the online facilities ... or you can really dig in and get the most value out of it as you possibly can. Either way, if you decide it's not for you, just ship it back within 30 days and we'll give you a 100% refund. It costs you nothing. You risk nothing. And no matter what, I think you'll learn a lot, even with a quick review.

Editor's note: Your deadline for saving $503 is this Thursday, February 5. Click here or call 1-888-548-9333.

Larry: Thank you. Thank you for everything.

Martin: Before we part, I want to leave you with one last thought: Forecasting future events is all fine and dandy. Sometimes we get it right, sometimes we don't. But the days of strictly forecasting and looking into the future to see the crisis are over.

Now, in addition to looking ahead, you need to deal with this crisis, here, now and today. So whether you are interested in this solution or not, you must not delay action. Don't rush, but don't procrastinate. Move boldly, but prudently. Get up to 90% of your money to safety. Then create and execute a solid back-up plan for income and profits that will endure even in the worst-case scenario. It can be this approach. It can be another approach. Just be sure to do it — and to get started right away.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin