infolinks

Saturday, December 26, 2009

OSK Macro Analysis Report: Investment outlook 2010

Think cautiously: hot money, asset bubble, inflation, policy exit, strong US$ ….

Global healing, not global boom

Global GDP had contracted by about 1% in 2009, the worst since 1982. Undoubtedly the world has started to heal in about June, and continues to bounce as China, Brazil, India and Southeast Asia are pulling relentlessly. While we believe the world will eventually heal all its deep-cut wounds caused by the financial turmoil of 2008, a full recovery is unlikely to be seen until the end of 2012. For 2010, we will have a global recovery, not a global boom. While the stock markets of Hong Kong and China are still in their party moods, we caution investors to think about the possible setbacks that will cause some really volatile swings for the markets.

Hot monies will depart

According to the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, about HK$640bn of hot monies had flowed into Hong Kong the last six months. There were no sign of their departure so far, but if they do depart, the bull market will end without hesitation. Many said hot monies will stay in Hong Kong, as China is booming and assets/stock prices are still cheap. Our view is that their inflow had caused the HSI to double in about nine months. There are plentiful profits with the hot monies already, so the lure to depart is irresistible. Besides, their flows are hypersensitive to the policy changes and shifting relative attractiveness of the different markets. As such, by nature they won’t stay.

Asset bubbles will burst

While hot monies stay, asset bubbles are unavoidable in Hong Kong, mainly because the Chief Executive only listens to the major developers. Many young doctor and lawyer lovers had told him they can’t afford to buy a shelter to get married, but he said they should rent instead, or buy a tiny flat to start. We will not see public land sales resuming. As such, property prices will continue to rise. The asset bubble will burst when all young couples are marching on the streets on 1st July 2010, or when the hot monies suddenly leave and cause the market to collapse.

Inflation risk in China is back

The CPI in China became positive at 0.6% in November, after had remained at –ve 0.5% to –ve 1.8% in the previous nine consecutive months. We believe the CPI in China will likely be hovering at around 5% in Q3 2010, and the risk of reaching that earlier is high. Property prices are at historical peak in many cities. Fast rising rents will speed up the increases in consumer prices in every sector. The State Council’s work conference of 12th December urged local governments to stop property price rising by all means, and on 18th December, a new rule requires all developers to pay 50% of land cost when acquiring new land. Despite these, runaway property prices and rising inflation will hit both China and Hong Kong in mid-2010, in our view. With near-zero interest rates, all anti-inflation tools will not be very effective. As such, we alert that inflation will become a nasty issue in China/HK from Q2/Q3 2010.

“Policy exit” here and there

Given the globe will reach the flexing point of its recovery path during 2010, the central banks must withdraw the excessive liquidity from the system. Their “policy exit” may take different forms, and start at different times. Yet the end result will be the same: interest rates will go up, so as the mortgages and borrowing costs. Only by doing so, the G7 (and to lesser extent, China) can curb inflation expectation before inflation runs. As the “policy exit” is equal to high interest rate, equity markets will head south when the politicians are heated up with the debates of when and how to exit, a signal telling the stock market to contract, in our view.

US$ strengthening

The US$ had declined by 10-20% against most Asian currencies in 2009, causing gold price to reach over US$1200. The US dollar index of the Reuters was 89 in Feb and is now 77. In 2010, the US$ will likely strength instead of continue to fall, the US economy will finally start to recover and the number of new jobs will rise. A stronger US$ will lift the appreciation pressure from the RMB, and will also induce a majority of the hot monies to flow back to the US, causing severe swings in the HSI.

18.5% upside for the HSI

The HSI at 21,175 is now trading at about 17x 2009(est.) earnings. The consensus eps growth for HSI in 2010 is about 22% as of today. If the market sublimes to maximum bullishness again, the HSI could go for its historical forward peak p/e of 18 times, and hit as high as 27,800 in 2010. However, given the 5 afore-mentioned major cautions, we believe investors will exercise maximum care instead, pushing HSI to peak at 25,000 only. In fact, we could still see the HSI nudging up 5-10% higher from this level, but only momentarily. Within the HSI constituent counters, we believe the PRC banks have the best upside. We also like the developer stocks before the asset bubble burst.

Hot themes for the mid-caps

We believe coking coal, steel, cement, heath care, sportswear, green energy (car batteries and wind) are the hot themes from which we can identify many super outperformers in 2010. China’s infrastructure will boom in 2010, due mainly to the Rmb4 trillion rescue package of Q4 2008. Steel, coking coal and cement should be investors’ main focus in the next 6 to 9 months. As living standard improves, the sportswear and health care stocks will perform fantastically. We also believe the green energy companies will remain hot in 2010, including those involving in wind and solar energy, and those supplying the next generation batteries for cars.

Monday, December 14, 2009

Tanjong may pay high dividend, says ECM Libra

Tanjong plc (2267), a power producer and gaming company, may pay a high dividend in its final quarter as earnings from its utility business continue to be strong.

ECM Libra, an investment bank, expects the group to pay a full year dividend of RM1.16 for the year to January 31 2010, which is the same amount it paid for 2009.

So far, it has declared total dividends of 52.5 sen for the first nine months of the current financial year.

"We continue to like Tanjong as a defensive stock as well as for a dividend play," ECM Libra said in a research report released yesterday.

A stock is described as defensive if its price does not suffer volatile swings over time and holders enjoy a continuous stream of dividend payouts.
Tanjong's stock has gained about 24 per cent so far this year, underperforming the broader market's 43 per cent gain in the same time.

The group, which also operates a leisure business called Tropical Islands in Germany and the TGV cinema chain, posted a third quarter net profit of RM177.8 million, an 83 per cent surge from the same period last year.

Revenue for the period to October 31 was almost flat at RM985 million.

Its net profit for the full nine months was RM550.7 million, 27 per cent higher than the same period last year.

Tanjong made more money mainly from its power business, driven by its Egypt power plants, as it spent less on plant maintenance.

However, luck was not on Tanjong's side in the numbers forecasting operation as it paid out more prizes in the third quarter against the second quarter.

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

KLCI target of 1,400.

New listings coming on stream. With the improving economic outlook, we see PM Najib Razak’s new reform policy measures gaining some momentum in terms of execution. JCY International, a Malaysian hard disk drive components maker, has submitted an application to list the company in what is probably the country’s second-largest IPO over the last six years with an estimated offering of M$1B (according to the Edge newspaper). This follows the announcement made by the new administration on a modification of Bumiputera equity ownership requirements upon listing from 30% previously to 12.5% on a best efforts basis.

· *  Financial sector liberalization is happening. On 20 November 2009, the Malaysian government issued a commercial bank license to Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Limited (ICBC). Note that this license is separate from the five new commercial banking licenses (two in 2009 and 3 in 2011) that will be issued under the liberalization initiative that was announced on 27 April 2009 which is currently in progress. On the capital markets front, Goldman Sachs has been granted a license by the Securities Commission to establish a fund management and corporate advisory business following the recent policy change in allowing 100% foreign ownership of fund management and corporate finance firms in Malaysia.

· *  We hope to see more execution of policy reforms in 2010. Possible events to watch out for include:- 1) high profile infrastructure projects and government procurement contracts awarded on open tender basis; 2) revitalization of GLC transformation programme including selling down holdings to facilitate liquidity; 3) increased corporate activity that could boost the earnings profile of the domestic equity market; 4) new foreign investment into the recently “liberalized" services sector and Iskandar region.

· *  Dec-10 KLCI target of 1,400. To recap, our positive stance on the Malaysian equity market in 2010 is based on policy implementation surprising on the upside aided by tailwinds from an improving external sector and globally low interest rates. Top picks are Public, AMMB, Tenaga, Sime Darby, Genting and IJM. Avoid Maybank, YTL Power and MISC.

J.P. Morgan Research

Tuesday, December 8, 2009

PPB Group: Share prices-in zero value on core operations

PPB Group’s market capitalization only reflects its stake in Wilmar (18%) and Maybulk (14%) and implies zero value on its core operations in sugar refining, grain trading and film distribution. We are positive on the stock: (1) Recent corporate exercise to dispose MFM, kilang Gula Felda Perlis and 5,797ha land in Chuping Perlis will net the company RM1.3bn (RM1.10/share). (2) Wilmar is a cheaper proxy to rising CPO prices (+51% YTD) vs. Bursa-listed big-cap planters like Sime Darby, IOI and KLK. Wilmar trades at 17x FY10E PE compare to 19-20x for Bursa-listed planters. Assuming Wilmar re-rates to 20x FY10 PE, PPB’s stake in Wilmar will be worth RM18.18/share.

PPB’s share price (+71% YTD) is trading at 13x FY10 PE, a 32% discount to big-cap planters. We value PPB at RM19.50/share based on sum-of-the-parts: (1) stake in Wilmar at RM15.51/share; (2) stake in Maybulk at RM0.37/share, (3) core operations and balance sheet item at RM3.62/share.


HLG Research

Monday, December 7, 2009

Our 11 Startling Forecasts for 2010 (Edited Transcript) by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

Forecast #1
The Federal Reserve will not relent
in its money printing madness until
it's absolutely forced to do so.

Martin: Because ...

Mike: Because it's in black and white — right in the Fed's own statements, month after month. It's what they told us they'd do. It's what they're doing. And it's what they're telling us they're going to continue doing. We also know Bernanke will pursue this policy because of the persistence of those forces. We've had 120 bank failures from the beginning of 2009 through mid November, the most since the S&L crisis of the 1980s.

Martin: An obvious excuse for the Fed to continue printing money! So the pivotal question for 2010 is this: When and how will Mr. Bernanke shift gears? But first, let's focus on the immediate consequences of the Fed's money printing.

Larry Edelson: Just connect the dots! They take you straight to

Forecast #2
A continuing, virtually unstoppable
long-term decline in the dollar.

Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D., Larry Edelson, Claus Vogt, Mike Larson

Yes, we will have dollar rallies. And yes, the dollar rallies will be sharp. But they will be traps. After each rally, the dollar will consistently resume its long-term decline. Mr. Bernanke is creating massive new supplies of U.S. dollars, ad infinitum. So he's naturally diluting their value.

Martin: But so far, the U.S. dollar's decline has been orderly.

Larry: I wouldn't use the word orderly. Instead, I'd use the words "messy" and "volatile," and that's only going to get worse in 2010. 2010 will also bring louder voices demanding that the dollar be replaced as the world's dominant reserve currency. Most important, at some point, the pressures on the dollar could reach critical mass, and the pace of decline will accelerate. Instead of a zigzag decline, you'll see a freefall, and ultimately, outright panic.

Claus: A tipping point could come when the dollar makes new, all-time lows ...

Martin: ... and those lows are already very close.

Larry: Yes. Against the euro, the dollar is just 4 euro cents from its lowest level in the euro's history. When that low is broken decisively, it could set off a dramatic wave of panicky dollar selling here and in the Euro zone. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar is now just 2.5 yen from its lowest level of all time. When that low is broken decisively, it could set off an even more dramatic wave of panicky dollar selling in Japan. And globally!

Claus Vogt

Claus: Of course. Investors hold dollars all over the world — not only in the Euro zone and Japan, but also in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, and the Americas. Those investors are not only central banks that may still have some political motives to refrain from selling ... but also private corporations and individuals who don't give a darn about politics, who won't hesitate for a moment to dump their dollars if they feel that's what it takes to avoid a beating.

Martin: Right. But won't that kill European export industries?

Claus: Yes, and periodically here in Europe, we will gripe and make noise about how unfair that is. But we cannot complain too loudly. Remember, we also benefit from all this free money. We also have very shaky financial systems. We also have been rescuing our banks and letting our budgets go to hell in a handbasket. Meanwhile, I don't think the Japanese can complain very much, either.

Martin: Because they have been doing pretty much the same thing as the Fed is doing now ... and they've been at it for over TWENTY years.

Claus: Yes!

Monty Agarwal

Monty Agarwal: Gentlemen, I know I'm new here and you wanted to save me for later, but there's another factor — a factor so pertinent to this discussion ... do you mind if I interject it here?

Martin: I don't mind at all.

Monty: It's the sovereign wealth funds, the giant national pension funds, which I track avidly. Not only have they grown dramatically in size — to as much as 3 trillion dollars — but with the dollar decline, they are now becoming far more aggressive in shifting out of the dollar and moving into alternatives — other currencies, other sectors, other continents, such as Asia. Most economists are greatly underestimating their impact. And most investors will probably miss the opportunity to follow their lead to some very profitable asset reallocations in 2010.

Martin: What happens next, gentlemen?

Larry: Let me answer that. Let me tell you what I already see happening among many investors here in Asia ... and what could soon become a sweeping, worldwide phenomenon all over the world in 2010.

Forecast #3
The entire concept of "RISK" will be REDEFINED
by global investors. The new definition will be:
HOLDING U.S. dollars and dollar-denominated assets.

First of all, more and more investors perceive U.S. dollars — and anything denominated in dollars — as high-risk investments. They don't really care how conservative the instrument is or how strong the company may be. All they see is that it's wrapped in greenbacks, and they paint everything associated with those greenbacks with a single broad brush and a single color — red for risk.

Martin: Which makes them anxious to dump dollars.

Larry: Yes, but it runs deeper than just currency trading. It means they are compelled to find other assets that can replace the U.S. dollar as stores of value. They must rush to buy alternative forms of money for their wealth ...

Martin: Like gold ...

Larry: Not just gold, but also silver, copper and other commodities. Not just commodities but also other tangible assets like real estate. Not just tangible assets, but also paper assets that provide a stake in those tangibles ... including common stocks!

I call this "the monetization of assets" — the phenomenon whereby other assets of many shades and colors become substitutes for the traditional role money plays as a store of value. That's the inevitable result of the Fed's efforts to flood the economy with devalued money.

Claus: And that's why they're buying gold.

Martin: Which leads me to this question we often get from our readers: Won't central banks prevent — or at least moderate — the rise in gold by simply unloading some of their gold hoards on the marketplace?

Larry: No. they're going to do precisely the opposite, which takes us to our next forecast:

Forecast #4
Gold will reach $1,500 if not higher as
central banks help drive up its price
with massive new buying of their own.

Martin: When do you see this beginning in a big way?

Larry: It already is! China is actively buying gold, boosting its gold reserves from 600 metric tons to 1,054 metric tons — a 76 percent increase since 2002. India has just spent a whopping $6.7 billion to scoop up 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund.

Martin: But how big is this in the context of the broader global market for gold?

Larry: Are you kidding? It's equal to roughly 8 percent of all the gold mined in the entire world each year. Meanwhile, in addition to central banks, you've got a rush of private investors buying gold. Demand for gold investment products like ETFs soared to a record 1,732 metric tons of gold in the third quarter, $55 billion of gold. All this buying is converging right now. And this is the most obvious factor that will drive up gold in 2010.

Martin: Now, 27 percent of our readers said gold could rocket to somewhere between $1,500 and $2,000. And nearly 8 percent said $2,000 or higher.

Larry: Well, they're right on, in my opinion! But it won't be a one-way street. Before going that high, an ounce of gold could dip below $1,000. If it does, it will be a huge buying opportunity, a true gift for gold investors. I've said this many times before and I'll say it again: Every ounce of gold bullion you can buy for less than $1,000 an ounce should be seen as a great bargain.

Martin: Claus, what about oil?

Claus:

Forecast #5
The overwhelming majority of oil producing nations
will demand that the U.S. dollar be replaced as the
pricing standard for crude oil.

Martin: In past OPEC meetings, the debate was always about how to lower or raise the price of oil.

Claus: That will not be the big issue in 2010. More than ever before, oil will be driven by free market forces, and more than ever, the rise in oil prices will be tied to the fall in the U.S. dollar. As the dollar falls, the demands to replace the dollar will get louder and more unanimous. And as those demands grow in strength, you'll see more and more upward pressure on oil prices.

Martin: Gentlemen, please be more specific about what that will do to the price.

Larry: Here's my forecast, based on my work with the Foundation for the Study of Cycles: In 2010, the price of oil will move into a new, higher, and broader trading range — $110 on the high end, $70 on the low end.

Martin: So you don't see oil making new highs in 2010. Why not?

Claus: Because of the weak demand for energy from the largest economy in the world, the United States. Yes, the U.S. economy is recovering. And yes, the recovery could last well into 2010. But here's our forecast:

Forecast #6
The U.S. economic recovery of 2010
will go down in history as one of the
weakest and shortest in 100 years.

Mike: Never forget: There are currently 27.4 million unemployed or underemployed workers in the United States.

Never forget: Banks are clamping down on credit cards, tightening standards for the last nine quarters in a row, according to the Fed's own surveys. Also never forget that more than one in five U.S. homeowners has lost all their equity in their home and is upside down on their mortgage.

Plus, now you throw rising gasoline prices and surging heating oil prices into the mix and you're left with a perfect storm for a very large proportion of American consumers: No job security. No credit. No home equity to tap. And to add insult to injury, rising energy bills.

Claus: In contrast, when you look overseas, you see an entirely different picture:

Forecast #7
The economies of Brazil, China and India
will grow up to four times faster than the U.S.

For the most part, their consumers are not threatened by record unemployment, are not overly reliant on credit cards or home equity as a source of spending power ... and are not directly impacted by rising energy.

In the U.S., even if the recovery holds until the latter part of 2010, I don't think you'll see growth of more than a couple of percentage points. Meanwhile, Brazil will grow by nearly 5 percent, India by 7 percent and China by almost 9 percent.

Martin: Based ...

Claus: Based on official government sources, which, in at least two of those countries, have often understated the actual growth.

Martin: Tony, can you help us there? By the way, I understand you've now moved back to Asia permanently?

Tony Sagami

Tony Sagami: I was born in Japan, and moved to the U.S. as a child, and now I'm back living in Asia as an American citizen ... and loving every minute of it ... although I sure miss the U.S. But to answer your question about the global stock markets, I have all the information here at my fingertips, which brings me to ...

Forecast #8
Stocks in countries like China, India and
Brazil will rise up to three, four,
even FIVE times faster than the S&P 500.

The immediate reason is quite simple — China's $586 stimulus plan is working like a charm. China didn't have to borrow a dime to finance that stimulus. And unlike the U.S., which used trillions to buy out worthless sub-prime debt, China spent its stimulus money on highways, airports, dams, utilities, bridges, shipping ports and more. Not only has this created millions of jobs, it has created a foundation of productive infrastructure that will keep the Chinese economy humming for years to come.

Larry: Look. This is not just about one year or even one decade. We are in the first years of one of the most powerful mega-cycles in the history of civilization.

Martin: I know exactly what you're talking about — the work you've done over the years with the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, which you presented to us in an earlier event this year.

Larry: For those who may have missed it or who need to refresh their memory, could you run some key highlights of our session with the Foundation's Director of Research, Richard Mogey?

Highlights of Our Event with Richard Mogey,
Director of Research for the
Foundation for the Study of Cycles.

The time is the 1930s, and we're back in the Great Depression. President Herbert Hoover could not have dreamed of a more adverse environment to begin planning his re-election campaign — not even in his worst nightmares.

The public and the press demand to know who or what was to blame for this catastrophe. To survive, the Hoover Administration would have to give them answers.

But the president knows that just any answer will not suffice. Only a credible, exhaustively documented, scientific answer could have a chance of restoring the public's faith in his administration and in the U.S. economy.

And so, Hoover turns to a scientist he trusts — a Chief Economic Analyst in the Hoover Administration ... named Edward R. Dewey.

Later Dewey will create a nonprofit foundation. And with this foundation he and his successors will continue a 78-year quest for the mysterious forces that drive the economy and investment markets, joined by many of the best minds from Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Oxford, Temple University, Western Reserve and other globally respected institutions.

The mission of the foundation is championed by men at the very pinnacle of the scientific establishment — Charles Greeley Abbott, the Head of the Smithsonian ...William Cameron Forbes, the Chairman of the Carnegie Institution ... Wesley Claire Mitchell, Founder and Director of the National Bureau of Economic Research...

A former Vice President of the United States — General Charles G. Dawes — joins Dewey's Foundation. So does Senator Everett M. Dirksen.

Richard Mogey: Dewey discovered a very simple reality — that in modern, industrialized nations, economic expansions and contractions occurred in regular, PREDICTABLE patterns.

Larry: In regular waves — CYCLES!

Richard: Exactly!

Larry: I've put together a short list of some of the most outstanding calls in major markets.

Richard: Forecasts of key turning points.

Larry: Yes, the foundation alerted investors to

  • the June 1973 high in soybeans ...

  • the January 1980 high in silver ...

  • the March 1981 high in crude oil ...

  • the September 1981 high in interest rates ...

  • the August 1982 low in the stock market, and ...

  • the great Crash of 1987 in the stock market.

Richard: These were all very major turns in the history of
markets.

Larry: The Foundation forecast ...

  • the massive bull market in stocks, 1995-2000 ...

  • the bottom in oil, February 1999 ...

  • the historic low in commodities, June 2001 ...

  • the all-time high in stocks, September 2007, and ...

  • the March 2009 low in the stocks

Congratulations, Richard. This is why Weiss Research has entered into an exclusive, strategic alliance with the Foundation to help give our readers direct access to this valuable timing information.

Richard: Thank you! We also have a much longer, 500-year geopolitical cycle — a major power shift from East to West or from West to East, which is the case now.

Now, we return to our "11 Startling Forecasts for 2010" ...

Martin: That was fascinating, Larry. Congratulations again on introducing us to the Foundation. What I find most remarkable about all of this is not just how accurate the Foundation has been in timing the market, but also how broad their vision is of the future — particularly the 500-year cycle of the massive power shift from West to East.

Larry: We are just in the very early stages of that shift. And clearly, it's not just about a shift of power. It's also a shift of capital, wealth and investment opportunities. It's a wealth shift from economies that are bogged down in debts, deficits — and denial of the dire disasters all around them — to economies that are rich in cash, rich in commodities ... and full of confidence in their future. This is probably the most important, the longest term and the sustainable megatrend of our time.

Martin: What does that mean for global stock markets in 2010?

Claus: Here's our forecast:

Forecast #8
Stocks in countries like China, India and
Brazil will rise up to three, four,
even FIVE times faster than the S&P 500.

The S&P 500 could rise 20 percent further in the first half of 2010. But as investors begin to realize how weak the U.S. recovery truly is, it's likely to give up AT LEAST half of those gains in the second half.

So by December, if the S&P is still up 10 percent for the year, it will be a minor miracle. In contrast, don't be surprised if major foreign markets are up by 30 percent, 40 percent or even 50 percent for the year ... three, four or even five times more than the S&P 500.

Martin: Mike, you told me before this conference that you had some strong numbers that illustrate how this has happened in the recent past.

Mike: It's actually quite consistent. When stock markets are rising, most foreign markets outperform by HUGE margins. So far this year, for example, the S&P 500 has risen by 21 percent. China's Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index is up 75 percent, beating the S&P by factor of 3.6 to one. India's BSE Sensex index is up 79 percent, beating the S&P by a factor of 3.8 to one. And Brazil's Bovespa Index is up 139 percent, over SIX times better than the S&P.

In 2007 overall, the foreign markets did equally well — India up 65 percent, Brazil up 72 percent, and China up 110 percent. But since the S&P rose only 3.5 percent, the relative outperformance is far greater: India, almost 19 times better. Brazil almost 21 times better. China thirty-one times better!

So clearly, a forecast of three, four or five times outperformance in 2010 is not at all unreasonable, given the historic precedents.

Martin: Just remember that this is a double-edged sword. Volatility to the upside comes with volatility to the downside. Would anyone venture a guess as to which will do the best of all?

Tony:

Forecast #9
The best performing stock markets in 2010
will include Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam.

I just completed a five-day fieldtrip to Indonesia, and I was blown away by what I found. Indonesia has the fourth largest population in the world and is growing like a weed. It just reported that its economy grew by 4.2 percent in the third quarter and that's on top of 4 percent in Q2. That makes it the THIRD fastest growing economy in all of Asia, just behind India and China.

Indonesia is extremely rich in natural resources, especially oil and coal. How rich? Many people don't realize that Indonesia was the only Asian member of OPEC until it voluntarily withdrew last year. You know why they withdrew? Because their economy was growing so fast and they were making such good use of their own oil, they didn't need to export it any more. OPEC stands for Organization of Petroleum exporting countries. So if they're not exporting, why be a member?

Martin: You've recently been to Taiwan, Hong Kong, Macao, mainland China, Japan, India ... now Indonesia. Where are you going next?

Tony: My next trip is to Xian, China. There are over 100 Universities there and they produce the most engineers of any city in China. That gives them a wealth of talent in technology and engineering, and I am going to visit two companies in particular that tap this talent.

From there, I'm going to Hanoi and Ho Chi Min City. Vietnam is taking aggressive steps to open up its economy. It has recently been privatizing companies and property rights. It's taking some very broad measures to boost the liquidity of its stock market. Its market is another prime candidate for #1 outperformer next year.

Larry: And Thailand, despite its political problems, is one of the most undervalued markets in Asia, with many stocks trading at less than their book values! Plus, there's a vast amount of new Chinese money going into Thailand, buying property, buying banks, buying every major asset they can lay their hands on. Which leads us to sovereign wealth funds.

Monty: As you know, major sovereign wealth funds are essentially the national pension funds of some of the world's richest nations, and my forecast is quite simple:

Forecast #10
Sovereign wealth funds of Asia will become far more aggressive buyers of contra-dollar assets in 2010, helping to drive up their values at a much faster clip than generally expected, especially in Asia.

Just the top ten Sovereign Wealth Funds in the world have nearly $3 trillion in capital. More than 80 percent of that capital originates from the Middle East and Asia — and more than 70 percent of that capital is going into natural resources, which are contra-dollar assets.

Larry: What most people don't realize is that the sovereign wealth funds are also global trendsetters. When they start gobbling up natural resources, other companies will follow their lead and do the same.

Sean Brodrick: Which leads us to our next forecast:

Forecast #11
Expect a MASSIVE new global boom in mergers
and acquisitions, focusing on small- and
mid-cap natural resource stocks.

Sean Brodrick

We just saw Goldcorp gobble up a company with gold mining operations in Mexico by the name of Canplats for $238 million. And this acquisition was driven by a wave that will lift a lot more small boats, targeting not only gold, but other natural resource like oil, silver, copper and more. The wave I'm talking about is that the large producers can't replace their production fast enough.

And it's accelerating. Bear Creek Mining bought three gold and silver exploration companies in South Peru. El Dorado Gold bought Sino Gold in China. Jin Shan, based in Canada, recently merged into a larger Chinese miner.

Tony: I have another one:

Bonus Forecast
2010 will bring a NEW phase in Asia's
real estate boom — a boom which is
both broader and far more sustainable
than America's real estate boom of the 2000s.

Martin: Where in particular?

Larry: I travel throughout Asia. I bought a property here in Bangkok just SIX months ago, and it's already up 35 percent. So I can answer that question based on first hand information. Real estate prices will naturally be highest in major urban centers where population density is the greatest and real estate is in the tightest supply: Hong Kong, Singapore, Shanghai.

Martin: Gentlemen, this is fascinating. But most investors can't travel all over Asia like you do. And even if they could, how are they going to buy Asian real estate?

Tony: Are we ready to start naming specific investments?

Martin: Yes!

Tony: In the past, it would have been almost impossible for the average American investor to profit from a real estate boom in Asia. Today, it's just a matter of buying the right exchange-traded funds — simple ETFs. ETFs are traded on U.S. exchanges. You can buy ETFs with deep discount commissions, or even zero commissions. And you can do it in any standard brokerage account or IRA.

Martin: What about ETFs for Asian real estate?

Tony: You can use IFAS. This ETF owns shares in some of the biggest commercial property developers throughout Asia, including China, Singapore, and Japan.

I have personally visited real estate developments in Shanghai, Beijing and all over China, and that's where I think you're going to get the biggest bang for your buck. I'd love to take readers on a tour with me to see some of them — and the HUGE demand for them — first hand. But I don't have to.

You can buy a stake in China's real estate with the Claymore/AlphaShares China Real Estate ETF (symbol TAO). This ETF owns companies like Wharf Holdings Ltd. and New World Development, which develop malls, office buildings, and other commercial projects in China.

The main point I'd like to make is that there are ETFs for each and every one of your forecasts, and for nearly all of them, the market liquidity is excellent.

Martin: Forecast #2 was a continuing, virtually unstoppable long-term decline in the dollar. What's the simplest vehicle for profiting from that trend?

Bryan Rich

Bryan Rich: Currency ETFs. ETFs that never buy a share of stock, never buy a single bond. ETFs that invest strictly in foreign currencies themselves. These ETFs allow you to profit from the appreciation in the currencies against the dollar. Plus, in several cases, you get the benefit of a higher yield.

For example, the Australian dollar ETF now gives you a full three percentage points more than U.S. Treasury bills or U.S. money markets. The Brazilian real ETF pays you over EIGHT percentage points more!

Martin: The next actionable forecast was gold heading for $1,500. What instruments to do you recommend?

Larry: If you don't own any gold, decide how much you want to allocate to gold and buy half now, half on a pullback. But don't put most of that allocation in bullion coins or bars. You'll have to pay a hefty premium. You'll have the costs and hassles of storage. It's simply not for most of your money.

Instead, I use the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD). It's far more flexible and practical.

In addition, every investor should hold shares in gold miners like Newmont, symbol NEM, and Barrick, symbol ABX; plus some juniors, like Agnico Eagle, symbol AEM; IAMGOLD, symbol IAG; and another up-and-coming company, Jaguar Mining, symbol JAG.

Martin: Forecast #5 was a higher trading range for oil, up to $110 per barrel but NOT new all-time highs. To me, that implies a strategy that also has a strong income or dividend component.

Nilus Mattive

Nilus Mattive: I like Master Limited Partnerships like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (symbol KMP) and Energy Transfer Partners (symbol ETP), which have dividend yields of 7.6 percent and 8.1 percent respectively. Or, if you want to get broad diversification in MLPs with one shot, you can use the MLP & Strategic Equity Fund (MTP), which pays an annual yield of 5.7 percent.

Martin: The next actionable forecast was on the strong potential outperformance of stocks in countries like China, India and Brazil. What are the best vehicles?

Tony: There's a solid ETF for each one. Plus, beyond ETFs, I think the best way to invest in China is to concentrate on the two C's ... Construction and Chuppies — Chinese yuppies. And my favorite stocks for these two sectors those trends are Duoyaun Global Water (DGW) and New Oriental Education (EDU).

Martin: Last actionable forecast: Big mergers in small- and mid-cap resource companies.

Sean: One of the hottest regions right now is Argentina and Chile, where I've been hopping around for the last eight days virtually nonstop on twin-engine puddle-hoppers, micro buses, pick-up trucks, hiking —in the Andes, in Patagonia. That's where my favorite Latin American gold miner has two of its most promising exploration projects. The one in Patagonia is called Cerro Moro where they're finding bonanza-grade veins — 13 grams of gold per ton of rock mined ... 56 grams of gold per ton, 550 grams per ton.

Martin: How does that compare to other mines?

Sean: They have to do a lot more drilling to prove it up, but look, there are mines all over the world going into production with less than a single gram per ton.

Martin: You never gave us the name of the company.

Sean: It's Exeter Resources, traded in Toronto and on the Amex. Plus, they have another huge project in Northern Chile, which I just visited, which could one of the largest undeveloped gold resources in all of Latin America. The kicker is that this company's valuation is based almost exclusively on this second project. So the first project is like a free, extra bonus.

Monty: Gentlemen, I've been listening carefully throughout this hour and I'd like to give you my evaluation of what I've heard, if I may. I have managed Asia-focused hedge funds for quite a few years — in Tokyo, in Singapore, in Hong Kong ... and most recently in the U.S. Hedge funds are avid but also very skeptical buyers of research. So I think I can recognize good work when I see it, and I want to compliment your team for bringing together the essential elements of investment success: On-the-ground research — not just in some ivory tower on Wall Street, but also in the trenches overseas. Timing, with the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. And diversification, with a team of specialists, each in their individual sector. The only thing I would add to that, as I've stressed from the outset, is to track closely what the giant sovereign wealth funds are doing. Follow them closely, and you should do very well in 2010.

Martin: Gentlemen thank you very much, you have brought to the table a wealth of investment ideas ...which leads me to something I have been wanting to say directly to our most loyal readers for quite some time.

I have your emails and blog comments. I have been thoroughly briefed about your phone calls. I love your compliments, and I also very much appreciate your concerns and even your complaints

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but the message I take away is that you'd like the research and investment ideas of all the experts on this team.

You want open access to the entire group without paying for this or that news letter like most investors typically do.

I hear you. I want to give you what you're asking of me ... and more. I want to do everything I can to help you ensure your future investment success — not only to take advantage of our startling forecasts for 2010, but also to continue doing so in 2011, 2012 ... and the entire new decade that is about to begin.

So earlier this year, I gave my Weiss Research staff the challenge to create a very special membership program with the following parameters:

First, it must be for your core funds — no investment recommendations for options or fast-paced trading, but strictly recommendations that make sense to the mainstream investor, and that can go into any standard brokerage account or IRA.

Second, it must cost LESS than the total cost of all the newsletters for just one year (not based on their list prices, but based on their discounted prices).

Third, and here's the big breakthrough: It must be forever! I hate asking you for your renewal every year just as much as you probably hate paying for renewals every year. How can we do away with that? Well, when you join a country club, you never have to renew. You buy the membership once and that's it. The same concept here is the same.

Fourth, each year brings change, and to adapt to that change, we are continually adding new, exciting newsletters. So any new, future newsletters that are dedicated to your core funds will also be included.

Last, as an incentive for you to join us and get ready before we march into the amazing year ahead, I asked my team to offer a hefty Charter discount for those who join before year-end.

That, I trust, addresses all of your hopes and requests, and if you'd like to learn more, click here.

I also trust you have gotten great value out of this program today. I personally find this live video streaming to be a great way to stay in close touch with you and talk to you directly in a way that I can't always achieve with the written word alone. So much so, that I want to do this more regularly and in a way that is easier for you as well.

So as part of your VIP membership in our inner circle, you will also get access to our regular TV show we're launching next year.

I look forward to seeing you there.

And in the meantime, we'll send you more specific details on the VIP membership program.

Thank you again for joining today. Have a good day and a great 2010!



Tuesday, December 1, 2009

GDP to grow 5%, FBM KLCI target 1,400, says fund manager

Written by Lam Jian Wyn
Tuesday, 01 December 2009 16:4



KUALA LUMPUR: UOB-OSK Asset Management Sdn Bhd has forecast Malaysia's economy to grow 5% next year while the target for the 30-stock FBM KUALA LUMPUR COMPOSITE INDEX [] (FBM KLCI) will be 1,400.

Its chief executive officer Lim Suet Ling said on Tuesday, Dec 1 that the FBM KLCI's resistance level would range from 1,350 to 1,400.

"It (FBM KLCI) will outpace the company's forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 5%," she said at the launch of the OSK-UOB Capital ASEAN Fund.
The GDP growth would be underpinned by the PLANTATION [], oil and gas and services sectors, she said.

Lim added the banking sector would possibly benefit from the recovery while plantations would gain from rising demand for crude palm oil (CPO). Supply of CPO was affected by the hot spell from May to July this year, she said.

"If you look at international television channels, the government is trying to raise awareness on palm oil as an alternative edible oil," she said, adding that this will boost demand.

On the corporate earnings for the quarter ended Sept 30, she added the corporations appeared to have learnt their lesson from the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis.

As for next year, while there may be small pockets of problematic companies, Lim anticipated a largely turmoil-free year in 2010. She said the worst had passed.





Hwang: 1 dec 2009 Market Strategy - What foreigners want

What foreigners want

There had been a noticeable absence of foreign participation in the 8½-month rally on the Malaysian bourse.

Macro valuation remains uncompelling, but there are gems to be found on the ground.

As global equities turn more volatile, we might see a gradual tactical switch to more defensive markets like Malaysia that could also offer currency gains.

At the top of our list of companies with low foreign shareholdings and solid fundamentals are CIMB, IJM Corporation, MRCB, SP Setia and Tenaga.

Light foreign presence. Foreign investors were conspicuously absent from the scene when the Malaysian stock market jumped 51% between mid-Mar 09 and now. This was evident in the insignificant level of trading activity by foreign investors (just 25% of trading value in Jan-Sep 09) and the persistent net portfolio investment quarterly outflows (since 3Q07) with foreign ownership standing at a five-year low.

Why the low foreign interest? For foreign investors, regional peer markets were preferred over our local bourse even before the market run-up. Then, as now, its relatively high P/E multiple coupled with pedestrian prospects (15x CY10 earnings; 17% expected growth), low market velocity (39%) and marginal market size (US$287b) mean that foreign fund managers could still choose to bypass Malaysia with little risk of portfolio underperformance.

That may change soon. But coming off from a depleted base, foreign funds could trickle back into Malaysia , especially if global equities turn increasingly volatile ahead. As the risk-reward profile tilts in the opposite direction because of stretched valuations, strategists may be tempted to make a gradual tactical switch to more defensive low-beta markets like Malaysia to diversify risks.

The prospect of an appreciating Ringgit is an added appeal for investors in search of incremental investment returns.

Focus on stock specifics. Even though Malaysian stocks remain unexciting from a broad valuation perspective, there are hidden gems to be found using a bottom-up approach. Combing through our Buy list of big and mid-cap companies, under-owned stocks – with foreign shareholdings far below their recent peaks – that could increasingly come under the investment radar of foreign investors again are CIMB (33% foreign shareholding in Jun 09), IJM Corporation (34%), MRCB (19%), SP Setia (28%) and Tenaga (11%).

Wednesday, November 25, 2009

New dollar collapse this weekend?

While most of America is preparing for the long holiday weekend, most of the world is dumping U.S. dollars — in torrents.

Today, the U.S. dollar is sinking fast against the Japanese yen, the Singapore dollar, the Korean won, the Indian rupee and virtually every minor and major currency on Earth.

It has just breached the $1.50 level against the euro. It has just plunged to parity with the Swiss franc and could soon do the same with the Canadian dollar.

Gold, meanwhile, has now eclipsed $1,180 per ounce for the first time in history ... and is making a beeline for the $1,200 level.

What’s most alarming is that the trading pattern we’re observing in the dollar today is uncannily similar to the pattern we saw exactly three years ago:

As you can see from the above chart, during the Thanksgiving weekend of 2006, the dollar collapsed on the day before the holiday ... fell a bit further in global holiday trading ... and then collapsed again on the Friday after the holiday. More importantly, that also marked a new stage in a far longer term dollar bear market.

If this pattern repeats itself, its implications are far-reaching:

First, it means that the accelerated dollar collapse we warned you about in our “11 Startling Forecasts for 2010” video may not wait until 2010. It could be starting right now — on THIS supposedly “quiet” weekend!

Second, it implies that the specific investment recommendations we give you in the video can’t wait either; many could be immediately actionable.

Most important, it means that all heck could break loose after the Thanksgiving break when traders return to their desks and see the dollar carnage that has taken place in their absence.

If you have not yet had a chance to watch the 1-hour video in full, or would like to share it with friends and family, here’s the link. It goes offline next week. So this could be your last quiet time to review it.

Important: The specific investment recommendations are near the end. So I recommend you watch it from start to finish.

Good luck and God bless!

Martin

Friday, November 20, 2009

Maxis eligible for fast entry into FBM KLCI

Bursa Malaysia announced yesterday that Maxis Bhd will be eligible for fast entry into the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index in accordance with the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index ground rules.


This is because Maxis' full market capitalisation is expected to exceed 2 per cent of the full capitalisation of the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Index, it said in a statement.

It said that several changes in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Index series will take effect on November 20, subject to the listing of Maxis on November 19.

On the changes, Bursa Malaysia said Maxis will be added to the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI with a shares in issue total of 7.5 billion and an investability weighting of 30 per cent.

Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS) will be removed from the index, it said.


MAS will be added to the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Mid 70 Index with a shares-in-issue total of 1.671 billion and an investability weighting of 30 per cent.

Tradewinds (M) Bhd will also be removed from the index, Bursa Malaysia said.

Tradewinds will be added to the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Small Cap Index with shares-in-issue total of 296.470 million and investability weighting of 30 per cent.

The changes will be simultaneously reflected in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Top 100 Index and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Index.

Bursa Malaysia said Maxis will also be eligible for inclusion in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index and the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index at the next semi-annual review in December, subject to it passing the Shariah Advisory Council and/or the Yasaar screening methodology. - Bernama

Saturday, November 14, 2009

Prestar pre-tax profit rose 26pc in Q3

KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 13 — Prestar Resources Bhd’s pre-tax profit in the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2009 rose 26.24 per cent to RM16.914 million from RM13.398 million in the corresponding period of last year.

The improvement was mainly due to some recovery in steel prices, local demand as well as the continuous improvement in internal operational processes, it said in an announcement on Bursa Malaysia.

Its revenue fell to RM127.126 million from RM128.237 million.

Nevertheless, the nine months results was still significantly below last year’s performance, due to unprecedented high steel prices recorded in the same period last year.

For the nine months period, its pre-tax profit fell to RM11.426 million from RM52.694 million in the corresponding period last year as revenue dropped to RM326.752 million from RM438.975 million.

The steel industry experienced some recovery during third quarter, but uncertainties such as a softening of prices and inconsistent demand remained, it cautioned.

In view of positive factors arising, such as the full effect of the government’s spending under its stimulus package as well as gradual recovery of global economies, Prestar said its Board of Directors is of the opinion that the performance of the Group will remain satisfactory in the last quarter of the financial year. — Bernama

Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Malaysian Stock Index May Cross 1,300 Soon

By Chan Tien Hin
Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s benchmark stock index is
set to surpass “tough resistance” at 1,300, an 18-month high,
extending this year’s 45 percent advance, OSK Research Sdn. said.
The 30-member FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index “has a good
chance of testing the 1,300 point mark soon,” OSK analyst Shin
Kao Jack said in a report today. Having “violated the recent
peak of 1,270 points,” that level now offers initial support,
followed by 1,242, he said.
“Market activities have been relatively active over the
last seven trading days with more than 1 billion shares changing
hands” daily, Shin said. Trading volume on Malaysia’s stock
market averaged 843 million shares over the past three months,
according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The KLCI Index has risen 45 percent this year, helped by
Prime Minister Najib Razak’s 67 billion ringgit ($20 billion) of
stimulus measures aimed at reviving economic growth.
The gauge dropped 0.2 percent to 1,271.48 as of 11:45 a.m.
local time, snapping a six-day, 2.6 percent rally. It last
settled above 1,300 on May 16, 2008.
In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts
of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security,
commodity, currency or index. Support is a level where buy
orders may be clustered and resistance is where there may be
sell orders. A break below support or above resistance indicates
a security may move to the next level.

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Dow, oil, gold pulling back! What to do ... by Larry Edelson

The temporary market correction I've been looking for is here — both in the Dow and some key natural resources as well.

Oil is back under $78 per barrel. Gold is trading under $1,033 per ounce. The market averages are pulling back as well.

But these are just normal pullbacks that open up new buying opportunities. And they certainly change NONE of the compelling forces that are driving natural resources higher:

1. Supplies are dwindling rapidly: There's a finite limit to how much gold, oil, copper and other critical resources are available on Earth — and in many cases, supplies are stretched thin after decades of mining and drilling.

Plus, worldwide environmental regulations strictly limit the new supplies that could be brought to market. Even in the extremely unlikely event that these restrictions were eased, it would take years to develop new mines and new oilfields.

Conclusion: Normally, you could expect plunging supplies alone to push resource prices higher.

2. Massive new demand from China and India: Until recently, the lion's share of demand for critical natural resources came from the U.S. and other developed nations.

Not anymore! China's and India's economies are expected to grow their economies three, four, even five times faster than ours this year. More than a third of the world's population live in these two countries ... they're moving into the middle class ... and their demand for critical resources is skyrocketing.

Conclusion: This enormous new demand combined with dwindling global supplies can only drive resource prices higher.

3. The falling dollar: Despite last year's record-shattering $1.4 trillion deficit, Washington's spending, borrowing and money-printing binge continues unabated. As a result, global leaders and international financial authorities are calling for the U.S. dollar to be replaced as the world's reserve currency.

Conclusion: Until this dire situation changes, you can expect the greenback to continue plunging, driving the price we pay for critical resources ever-higher.

Resource stocks soaring up to 145%
in just three months!

I began urging you to buy natural resource investments with both hands three months ago. Now, in just the past 13 weeks, virtually ALL of my favorite resource investments have literally gone through the roof:

  • IAMGOLD Corp is up 20.8% ...

  • Anadarko Petroleum has risen 32.3% ...

  • McMoRan Exploration has jumped 43.9% ...

  • Pioneer Natural Resources has soared 58.7%, and ...

  • Coeur d'Alene Mines has rocketed 60.7% higher.

And these aren't even the most spectacular winners in the natural resource sector — not by a long shot!

Over the same period ...

  • Harvest Energy Trust is up 76.9% ...

  • Petroquest Energy is up 85.6% ...

  • Superior Well Services is up 91.2% ...

  • Brigham Exploration is up 115.2%, and ...

  • ATP Oil & Gas is up a whopping 145.4%.

All in just three, short months!

If you're already on board with a robust portfolio of resource stocks designed to help you profit from this monumental megatrend, great! If not, be sure to click here for my full report on this remarkable profit opportunity and make your move before I release a whole new set of recommendations next week.

Best wishes,


Larry Edelson

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Technical analysis on 12 oct 2009 by Hwang DB S

The ascending channel pattern on the chart remains intact for the moment. This, in turn, raises the support
points and resistance bars along the way, suggesting that our Malaysian bourse could still plot a series of
higher highs and higher lows going forward.
After a short and shallow intermittent pullback, the bellwether FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI)
resumed its uptrend with a weekly increase of 27.6-point or 2.3% to settle at 1,233.82 last Friday. Also up
for the week were the FBM 70 Index (+2.0%) and the FBM ACE Index (+0.7%). An added positive was the
notable pick-up in trading activity, as daily average volume and value soared to 717.9m shares and RM1.2b
respectively, heavier than the 584.5m units worth RM844.9m traded the week before.
Even the external backdrop is changing to a bit more optimistic now. Last week, Asian equities mostly
rebounded from their preceding weeks’ losses, paced by China shares listed in Hong Kong (+8.4%), Hong
Kong (+5.5%) and Thailand (+3.1%). In the U.S., major stock barometers were up between 4.0% and 4.5%
through the week. Interestingly, the widely watched Dow Jones Industrial Average is presently standing at
9,865 (its highest close since the rally started in Mar this year), eyeing to surpass 10,000 (the psychological
barrier) soon.
In essence, the bits and pieces of positive data – on economic recovery progress and corporate profit
expectations – held together to stir up buying interest globally. Whether the incoming reports remain
pleasant or turn nasty would be the key in sustaining investors’ appetite for equities ahead. Of interest too is
the future direction of the US$ given its weakness lately, which could distort global money flows between
asset classes and geographical allocations if the greenback depreciates further.
Local news flows, on the other hand, will still be quite slow this week. Just a few items are anticipated to
trickle in. They are: (a) the Sep plantation statistics to be out on Monday (12 Oct); and (b) the Index of
Industrial Production (IPI) for Aug also due on Monday. That’s about all the routine macro stuff in the weekly
schedule, not that their outcomes will matter much anyway, in terms of short-term stock market
implications. On the corporate scene, however, there may be individual share price actions in response to
possible surprises when the likes of Public Bank (likely to be on Thursday, 15 Oct) and Bursa Malaysia (on
Friday, 16 Oct) release their quarterly earnings announcements.
Yet, light news may be good news for share prices back home. This can then pave the way for our domestic
stock market to track its overseas peers, though we may still lag in pace.
As the saying in technical analysis goes “never buck a trend as the trend is your friend”, we are keeping our
stance that the prevailing momentum will push the FBM KLCI – even after surging 47.5% from its mid-Mar
trough – to extend its uptrend inside the rising channel.
After bouncing up from the bottom of the two parallel trend lines last week, the benchmark index will
probably zigzag its way to challenge the resistance target of 1,255 next. On the downside, its immediate
resistance-turned-support level stands at 1,230 at the moment. Should the FBM KLCI break under the
upward sloping trend line in the near term on heavy profit-taking pressures, the second support line is seen
at 1,190.

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

We all face risks; how to manage it

The Real Matter - A column by Pankaj A. Kumar

WE all know the saying that there are only two certain things in life – death and taxes. While one cannot deny the facts of life and that all of us will have to face the realities of life, not many, I believe, are prepared to accept that risk or risk management is the third element of life.
Ignore it and you will be cursed, embrace it and you’ll find a new meaning to life and it will change your perspective of life itself. Let me illustrate how risk or risk management determines our journey in life.
Many readers would have watched the movie Titanic – an epic 1997 American romantic drama film directed, written, co-produced by James Cameron about the sinking of the RMS Titanic. Twelve years ago when I watched the winner of 11 Academy Awards on the silver screen, I could relate to it only as a wonderful love story.
It was only recently when I attended a course on risk management that I watched the movie with a different perspective. The fact that it was her maiden voyage, untested in speed, the story offers many lessons to managers and corporates.
On hindsight, Titanic had insufficient number of lifeboats in case of emergencies and at the same time she was pushed to the limit in order to surprise everyone on her arrival in New York. She only had two lookouts for possible icebergs on calm waters and worse, warnings of iceberg were ignored as non-essential. By the time she hit a large iceberg, Titanic was travelling too fast to alter her route and to avoid the inevitable. The rest, as we now know it, is history.
How does the Titanic relate to the real world? As we now enter nearly 21 months into the second worst recession in history, there has been a lot of finger pointing to all sorts of market participants – the blame game – as investors try to find the root cause of the mess that the global financial institutions created.
From the bubble created by the US housing market to the subprime loans that came along with it, to the rating agencies responsible for the so-called AAA ratings assigned to these dubious instruments, to the regulators for allowing these transactions to take place, to the greed of investment bankers and sales persons responsible for pushing these products to the market, to even Fed chairman Alan Greenspan for creating the perfect environment of low interest rate environment, which made it even easier to create the mother of all bubbles – the credit market.
The reason markets went frenzy with the credit and housing market bubbles was that people were driven by greed and profits rather than best practices in terms of ensuring that whether it was an individual or a corporate, its balance sheet remained healthy despite additional bets taken on more products/services or transactions.
It is really funny that when we look back over the past two years or so, we hear how traders and sales persons were so well paid in the western world as they were measured based on the amount of deals they did and the amount of products sold, irrespective that the size of some of these bets could in actual fact, paralyse the whole institution.
Without these greedy traders or sales people, we would not have seen the demise of Lehman Brothers, neither would AIG be operating like a hedge fund. And, where was risk management in these institutions?
I am sure it was there, but totally ignored as business owners focused on profitability rather than ensuring that the firm’s position is not compromised. I believe that not many senior management staff of some of these large institutions had any idea that if things got out of hand, it would be equivalent to the Titanic hitting the iceberg.
There has now been a lot of debate in the marketplace of more regulatory enforcement, not only in areas related to governance but also on the issue of executive compensation. While it is really difficult to attach conditions of compensation – if regulators do really want to see changes in how a financial institution is run – risk management has to play a more prominent role.
It is not the traders or sales persons that these institutions should be focusing on in terms of rewards but risk managers as they are the true key drivers of profitability. Reward them well as they act as lookouts and ensure that a ship arrives at its destination on time, not earlier and definitely not later.
As humans, while death and taxes are certain, risk management ensures that we have a trouble-free journey and hence, we must embrace it.
Life itself is risky and as we journey on, we will be faced with many choices and changes. With risk management as a guiding tool, the journey of life becomes more fulfilling although it may not be all that satisfying.
Pankaj C. Kumar is chief investment officer at Kurnia Insurans (M) Bhd.