infolinks

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Daibochi Plastic & Packaging Industries

Daibochi chart from Jan 2014 till 11 Nov 2016

Daibochi chart from Feb 2016 till 11 Nov 2016

The first Daibochi chart shows that it is trending up since some time back. It also shows that it is paying dividend every quarter, (the blue bell sign on the chart shows the ex-date of each dividend)

The second Daibochi chart shows that it has been consolidating for a while and around September 2016 it started to move up again. The last 2 days saw renewed interest with a spike in price after the announcement of 3rd quarter financial results on 10th November, declaring a 3rd interim dividend of 1.32 sen single tier which is payable on 22nd December 2016.

The last traded price on 11 November 2016 is RM2.31. With 273.245 million shares issued it has a market capitalisation of about RM631.197 million.

Money flow for Daibochi for the duration of the past 1 year, past 1 month and past 1 week has been all positive. The positive money flow indicates either there is no selling pressure despite market uncertainty or accumulation is still on going even at RM2.31

Daibochi has an active and well-managed share buyback programme as it has in the past able to sell some of the treasury shares to long-term investors, making some decent profits for the company.

Export sales increase to 55% from 52%. Export to Australia and New Zealand is about 30% and the remaining 70% is exported to the southeast Asian countries.

52-week price range is RM1.79 - RM2.44. So at RM2.31 is near to the upper limit of the trading range.

Production line in Australia started in 3QFY16 and a second production line will start in the 4th quarter 2016. With the production located nearer to the clients it will result in some transport cost saving and hopefully increase its profit margin. In fact according to the latest quarterly financial report margin has stabilised.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell but a record of my own observations so that I can refer to this when I need it.








Daibochi Plastic & Packaging Industries

Daibochi chart from Jan 2014 till 11 Nov 2016

Daibochi chart from Feb 2016 till 11 Nov 2016

The first Daibochi chart shows that it is trending up since some time back. It also shows that it is paying dividend every quarter, (the blue bell sign on the chart shows the ex-date of each dividend)

The second Daibochi chart shows that it has been consolidating for a while and around September 2016 it started to move up again. The last 2 days saw renewed interest with a spike in price after the announcement of 3rd quarter financial results on 10th November, declaring a 3rd interim dividend of 1.32 sen single tier which is payable on 22nd December 2016.

The last traded price on 11 November 2016 is RM2.31. With 273.245 million shares issued it has a market capitalisation of about RM631.197 million.

Money flow for Daibochi for the duration of the past 1 year, past 1 month and past 1 week has been all positive. The positive money flow indicates either there is no selling pressure despite market uncertainty or accumulation is still on going even at RM2.31

Daibochi has an active and well-managed share buyback programme as it has in the past able to sell some of the treasury shares to long-term investors, making some decent profits for the company.

Export sales increase to 55% from 52%. Export to Australia and New Zealand is about 30% and the remaining 70% is exported to the southeast Asian countries.

52-week price range is RM1.79 - RM2.44. So at RM2.31 is near to the upper limit of the trading range.

Production line in Australia started in 3QFY16 and a second production line will start in the 4th quarter 2016. With the production line located near to the clients it will result in some transport cost saving and hopefully increase its profit margin. In fact according to the latest quarterly financial report margin has stabilised.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell but a record of my own observations so that I can refer to this when I need it.








Sunday, June 19, 2016

Binary options are a scam


I just read an interesting article  at the link below:

http://www.thestar.com.my/business/business-news/2016/06/18/binary-options-are-a-scam/

I think all investors must not be tricked into something which is too good to be true.
Even if you are a speculator and knowing that the odds are against you, you should read the article and understand why the majority of speculators lose money eventually.



"A scam is a dishonest representation, meant to trick someone. What makes binary options a scam is that it presents itself as an investment method, while it is nothing short of gambling with bad odds.

The simplicity of binary options is part of its attraction. 

Binary means “two” and refers to the fact that you only have to make a single decision about one of two outcomes. You decide on whether you think a certain asset will rise or fall in the future. 

he size of the movement does not matter. If you are wrong, you lose the money you have “invested”.

 If you are right, you will get a pay out of between 65%-85% of the “invested amount”. Note this is already unfair as you stand to lose 100%, but you can never win 100%. 

Some brokers will give you a small percentage – 5% to 15% – back, in case you lose, but they compensate this by giving you less when you win.

You can bet on almost any asset: stocks (for example Shell), indexes (for example the Dow Jones), commodities (for example gold, oil), or currency pairs (for example Ringgit and Dollar).

Here is the tricky part: the duration of the binary option is extremely short. It typically ranges from 60 seconds to 24 hours. 

For such short time periods, assets move in essentially random directions and cannot be predicted. The short duration makes any investment technique worthless. 

Binary option brokers will tell you “the trend is your friend”, but to call movements of a few second or minutes ‘trends’ is a grave misuse of the term. If you do spot a trend, it is only because the human mind is trained to see patterns and trends, even if they aren’t really there. 

Similar to how people see “trends” at the roulette table, while it is completely random what happens: roulette balls have no memory and don’t care what happened the previous roll. 

This means you are not investing, but gambling. It is just that you have worse payout ratios than if you were to go to the casino and gamble red or black on the roulette table.

Predicting what the stock is going to do in the next ten minutes is impossible, even for companies about which an abundance of information is available, such as Apple or Facebook. 

Random, unrelated events, such as interest announcements, large buyers / sellers, bad weather, a terrorist attack or a flash-crash could temporarily influence the stock price. 

But more often, there is no attributable reason at all for short term stock movements. This makes binary options gambling with unfair chances. The broker will always win at the end, just like at the casino.

As short-term fluctuations in stock prices are random and irrational, you have 50% chance of being right. Let’s say you “invest” RM100 and are wrong, you lose RM100. If you “invest” RM 100 and are right, you will get RM75 (a payout percentage of 75% is common). 

This means on average you will lose RM12.5 per trade: (lose RM100 + win RM75) / 2 trades. Betting red or black on the roulette table is a better deal (through you will still lose on average), as the payout is 100% and the chance that you win is 18/38= 47% (due to the occurrence of the 0 and 00).

As you have to accept the 75% payout, it means you would need to be right in 57% of your gambles, instead of 50%, in order to break even. In order to win money, you need to be right even more often! This is because 57% x RM 75 (you win) – 43% x RM 100 (you lose) equals zero Ringgit. 

But there is no knowledge that can help you to improve your win rate to 57%. After multiple gambles, you will always gravitate toward the 50% average and lose money.

It is easy to see how all the human weaknesses – greed, jealousy, overconfidence in your own trading ability and knowledge plus the underestimation of risk – come into play when you see the unwanted ads for binary options pop up on your screen. 

They scream at you: “no knowledge required!”, “Make money from your own home”, “Start earning thousands of ringgits in a few hours”. Then, the fake testimonies from paid actors start to play. It’s the latest ‘get rich quick’ scheme. It’s too good to be true, literally.

You don’t need to be Einstein to realise this is a scam. If it would work as advertised, everybody would do it. Regrettably, it is always the financially illiterate people that end up being the victim and become even poorer as a result, while the brokers are the only ones who profit.

No serious investor, such as Warren Buffet, would ever consider binary options. No financial investor worth his or her salt would advise it. 

Short term stock movements are “noise” that can only be filtered out by holding a stock for an extended period of time – not even months, but years. 

As Warren Buffet said in his Chairman letter of 1988: “Our favorite holding period is forever.”






Wednesday, March 16, 2016

FELDA Global Ventures

PROFILE

Felda Global Ventures Holdings Berhad, an investment holding company, is primarily engaged in agri-business worldwide. The company's Plantation segment cultivates, harvests, produces, and processes fresh fruit bunches; and sells crude palm oil (CPO) and palm kernel (PK). Its Downstream segment refines CPO; fractionates refined bleached deodorized palm oil and palm olein; crushes PK; processes and sells biodiesel products; and produces oleo chemicals, such as fatty acid and glycerin, as well as produces consumer end products. The company's Sugar segment refines sugar; and markets refined sugar and molasses. Its Manufacturing, Logistics & Others segment provides bulking and transportation facilities and services, engineering, information technology, security, and travel services; and sells planting materials. This segment is also engaged in the production and processing of rubber and fertilizers; and research and development activities. The company is also involved in the operation of residential real estate properties; provision of shared, lorry transportation, and treasury services; processing canola seed and soybean and its related by-products; operation, management, and maintenance of a railroad service; production of rubber cup-lumps; commodity trading; management of plantation estates and other biological assets; and processing of latex concrete. In addition, it produces, manufactures, markets, sells, and trades carbon nanotubes and grapheme; acts as general insurance agency, and travel and tour agent; produces and sells cocoa, rat poison, and fertilizers, as well as provides agricultural research services; provides computer services and sells computer software and equipment; sells industrial equipment; offers security and jetty services; manufactures biomass fuel; and provides storing, handling, and transportation services, as well as offers bulking installation services. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.

http://www.sarawakreport.org/2016/03/felda-global-ventures-floundering-more-looting-of-malaysias-public-funds/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+SarawakReport+%28Sarawak+Report%29

The link above for this company will alert the investors of the risk it faces due to some extraordinary issues.

Sunday, January 10, 2016

Big Bear coming our way?

The bull has been around for a very long time (since 2009) and it is already 6 years.
Several so-called experts in the market think that the big bear has arrived.
According to Dennis Gartmen, Dow will be correcting 10 to 15% and the bear will stay healthy for 6 months to 1 year.