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Saturday, August 28, 2010

Watch out for MPHB by Lee Huong Sing

The above chart is for MPHB on 27th August 2010.
1. Note that the parallel channel has an up slope.
2. There is a high possibility that its price may move downwards to meet the lower    channel line in the near future.
3. RSI is already <30 , indicating that it is oversold.
4. My guess is that, it will be a good buy entry if the price sinks below 2.05, of course the lower the better but need to place a stop loss if the price moves more than 5% away from the lower channel trend line.
5. Should the purchase be successfully executed, target it to be sold off when it moves back up to meet the upper channel.
Good luck

Thursday, August 26, 2010

HLeBroking Research on 27 August 2010

Despite the decoupling effects lately, persistent bearish economic data emerging from the US, deteriorating technical indicators and the lack of catalysts after the reporting season would dampen investors’ risks appetite.

With the Dow closing below 10k overnight and ahead of the crucial 2Q10 GDP revision and Aug consumer sentiment announcements tonight, the FBM KLCI will likely encounter stiff resistance to buck the Wall St and regional downtrends.  This is despite anticipation of short term funds inflow due to the strengthening RM against the greenback and the safe haven status of Bursa Malaysia.

For FBM KLCI, immediate resistance levels are 1412 (50% FR from top 1524 and low of 1300) and 1438 (61.8% FR). Immediate support levels are at 1400, 1390 (10-d SMA) and 1375 (20-d SMA).

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Top ten biggest market capitalisation stocks as at 24th August 2010

During a meaningful bull run, institutional investors will probably invest heavily in big cap stocks because of their high liquidity. In case the market decides to correct or should there be a change of trend it is easier to just sell of at least part of their holdings to take some cash off the table.
The FBMKLCI is now above 1400 and the average historical PE is above 15x which make the stocks even in the top 10 big cap no more a bargain. The high liquidity in the market place may provide some fuel for the fire of rally but it will burn out naturally in the course of time.
It will be a good and prudence to watch the market cap trend from now on, If the market cap starts to decline, it signals that the institutions are cashing out otherwise they still stay invested at the same level.

According to the past pattern, market will reach the end part of a bull run when the second and third lines come into play. Right now some second and third liners are not actively traded and their valuation such as PE is still low. Once these second and third liners start to move up strongly with volume it is probably a signal of the end of the current bull phase. 

For now I think there is still some room for the market to trend upwards.

This is just my opinion. Comments are welcome

Thursday, August 12, 2010

DXN Holdings Bhd (13 Aug 2010)

DXN had a major breakout above the DTL channel of RM0.60 in 2009 and later surpassed the neckline resistance of RM0.78 following the robust 1QFY11 results release on 28 July. DXN’s share price closed at 6-year high of RM0.91 yesterday and are marching steadily towards the upper UTL channel of RM1.00.



A breakout above RM1.00 will signal more upside to the significant neckline resistance level of RM1.10, followed by historical high of RM1.30 (30 Sep 03). The upside is also supported by a bullish crossover of the 50-d SMA above the 100-d SMA.



However, as share price already surged 26% since 28 July, we anticipate profit taking activities amid the overbought momentum readings. Strong support can be found at RM0.88 (38.2% FR from historical high/low of RM1.30 and RM0.20), RM0.85 (5-d SMA) and RM0.81 (10-d SMA). Our cut-loss point is pegged at below RM0.80.



ACCUMUALTE around RM0.85-0.88 levels, with a 6-month technical target of RM1.36, implying 8.2x (about 25% discount to industry P/E of 10.9x) on 16.6sen FY11 EPS.

From :HLeBroking Research

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Trading Idea : TDM Bhd (02 Aug 2010)

As 1QFY10 net profit already achieved 36% of FY09’s earnings, TDM’s FY10 earnings is expected to perform better, thanks the higher average CPO price of between RM2500-RM2,600/MT (vs RM2237/MT in 2009), buoyed by forecast of higher global vegetable oil consumption, weather abnormalities and rising soy bean prices. Moreover, its healthcare business is expected to provide further catalysts due to the resilient industry.



TDM’s mid-term uptrend remains firmly intact following the breakout above the downtrend line (DTL) and violating the neckline resistance levels. However, after surging 24% in July to a 10-year high of RM,2.27 on 26 July, TDM share prices could take a breather before marching to our 6-month technical target of RM2.75 due to the overbought technical readings.



In anticipation of a forthcoming healthy correction, investors may consider accumulating the shares around RM2.05-2.15 zone. Our cut-loss point is pegged at below RM2.05 (50% FR from low of RM1.82 to high of RM2.27).

Posted by HLeBroking Research